Ukrainian govt's 2023 macroeconomic scenario assumes crisis will last for 6 more months

MOSCOW. Oct 21 (Interfax) - The Ukrainian government has confirmed its Ukrainian economic growth forecast of 4.6% next year that was included in the 2023 draft state budget, First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko said.

"The scenario (4.6% growth in 2023) is based primarily on the assumption that the active stage of the crisis will last for another six months," Ukrainian media reported citing Sviridenko as saying at a business forum in Kiev on Friday.

As for this year, the economic slump of 37.5% was forecast in two quarters, Sviridenko said. "I think we will still reach better full-year figures at a level of 30%," she said. At the same time, the inflation rate is forecast at 30% by the yearend, she added.

As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said its macroeconomic security forecast could worsen. In particular, now the NBU expects a substantial reduction of risks only starting from mid-2023. In this regard, the Central Bank lowered its 2023 GDP growth forecast from 5.5% to 4%, but at the same time improved its estimate of 2022 decrease from 33.4% to 31.5%.