4 Oct 2022 13:22

Ukrainian business expectations improve in Sept but still below neutral - NBU

MOSCOW. Oct 4 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine's composite Business Activity Expectations Index rose to 46.1 in September from 44.1 in August, the results of the latest survey of companies, unveiled on Monday, show.

The index remained below the neutral level of 50.

"In September 2022, the BAEI was 46.1, up from 44.1 in August. [...] In September, businesses continued to ease their negative performance expectations as they adapted to wartime conditions [...]. At the same time, economic recovery across all sectors is being dampened by destroyed production facilities, logistical hurdles, rising energy prices, a drop in investment, imports and exports, and a decrease in purchasing power," Ukrainian media quote the NBU as saying in a commentary to the survey.

Industrial companies slightly upgraded their economic outlook for September, as the sector's index moved to 47.1, up from 46.7 in August. Respondents expected an increase in the volume of manufactured goods, this sub-index rising to 51.7 from 51, on the expectation of a rise in the number of new orders to 50.2 from 49.5. At the same time, expectations for new export orders fell to 46.1 from 46.7.

The construction sector's index was 41.0, down from 41.2 in August. Respondents were less downbeat about their construction volumes, the sub-index rising to 43.5 from 42.5 and the number of new orders, rising to 41.3 from 37.5. At the same time, respondents expected no increase in purchases of raw materials and supplies, with this reading falling to 41.3 from 45.

The expectations of trading companies improved, the sector's index rising to 49.9, from 47.4 in August. Respondents were upbeat about their trade turnover, rising to 50 from 47.3, and the amount of goods purchased for sale, up to 52 from 47.3. Companies in the sector said they intended to decrease their trade margins further, the sub-index rising to 39.3 from 38.

Services companies also improved their expectations of their business performance, with the sector's index rising to 43.4 in September, from 39.6 in August. Respondents eased their negative expectations for the amount of services provided, rising to 45.1 from 41.3, the number of new orders, up to 43.4 from 36.4, and the amount of services that are being provided, rising to 46.3 from 38.4.

Staff expectations remained restrained. Respondents across all sectors continue to report no intentions to expand their workforces, although demand for staff was noted in construction and in industry.

This survey was carried out from September 5 through September 23, 2022. A total of 448 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 45.8% are industrial companies, 27.2% services companies, 21.9% trading companies, and 5.1% construction companies; 30.1% of the respondents are large companies, 31.5% medium companies, and 38.4% small companies.