UGA raises forecast for grain, oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022

MOSCOW. July 6 (Interfax) - The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has raised its 2022 crop forecast for grain and oilseeds in Ukraine by 4.4% compared to its May forecast to 69.4 million tonnes from 66.5 million tonnes, the Ukrainian media reported on Wednesday, referencing the UGA website.

The new forecast's assessment of seeded area for these crops has been raised 1.6% from the May forecast to 19.1 million hectares from 18.8 million hectares.

"Ukrainian producers, despite the difficult conditions [...], continue to fight courageously for the harvest so that Ukraine has enough grain and can export part of the harvest to the world market. This year, Ukraine could produce 69.4 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds crops from a seeded area of about 19.1 million hectares," the UGA said.

"At the same time, export from Ukraine can reach 31.5 million tonnes, subject to a significant increase in the capacity of crossings at the borders of Ukraine. In the conditions of the current border transition capacities, Ukraine can count on a volume export of about 25-30 million tonnes in the 2022/2023 marketing year," it said.

Ending stocks from the 2021/2022 marketing year are expected to total around 25.9 million tonnes, up 0.9 million tonnes from the May forecast. Ending stocks could increase to 36.6 million tonnes or 48 million tonnes this season due to the inability to export agricultural products at the usual pace. The forecast for May put ending stocks at 31-43 million tonnes in the 2022/2023 marketing year.

The wheat harvest is expected at 20.8 million tonnes in 2022, up 8.3% from the May forecast, the corn harvest should reach 27.3 million tonnes, up 4.6%, barley has been kept at the same level of 6.6 million tonnes, as has been sunflowers at 9 million tonnes, while soy is projected up 4.7% at 2.2 million tonnes, and rapeseed is expected at 1.5 million tonnes, up 13.3%, according to the updated forecast.

The UGA forecasts exports of wheat in 2022/2023 MY at 10 million tonnes, of corn at 10 million tonnes, of barley at 2 million tonnes, of sunflowers at 6 million tonnes, of soy at 1.8 million tonnes, and of rapeseed at 1.45 million tonnes.

"In general, the export of grain and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level, if Ukraine, in the conditions of a blockade of Black Sea ports, can double the border transition capacities of other logistics routes, in particular, railway crossings on the borders with EU countries," the UGA said.

According to the Ukrainian State Statistics Committee, Ukraine had a record grain and oilseed harvest in 2021 at 85.7 million tonnes, up 32% from 2020, totaling 32.07 million tonnes of wheat, up 28.9%, 41.87 million tonnes of corn, up 38.2%, and 9.42 million tonnes of barley, up 23.3%.

Ukraine also harvested 16.38 million tonnes of sunflowers in 2021, up 25% over 2020, 10.8 million tonnes of sugar beets, up 18.1%, 3.5 million tonnes of soy, up 24.4%, 2.92 million tonnes of rapeseed, and 42,000 tonnes of oilseed flax, up 3.7-fold.

The UGA is an association of producers, processers, and major grain exporters that export around 90% of Ukraine's grain products annually.