Russia's inflation could accelerate to 22% in 2022, GDP could fall 9.2%, with zero growth in 2023 - analysts surveyed by Central Bank

MOSCOW. April 21 (Interfax) - Inflation could accelerate to 22% in Russia in 2022, and GDP could fall 9.2%, according to analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) for the regulator's monthly review.

Analysts' forecasts were worse for the drop in GDP, being 8% for 2022 in early March, as well as for the rise in inflation, being 20% for the year in early March.

Analysts overall also no longer expect any economic growth in 2023, with the consensus having worsened from growth of 1% in the March survey to zero this month.

"In terms of inflation, the median forecast increased 2 percentage points to 22.0% for 2022 in the April survey, decreased 0.4 ppt to 7.6% for 2023, and slightly rose 0.2 ppt to 5.0% for 2024," the CBR said in a press release.

"In terms of GDP, analysts have provided a worse forecast for the drop in GDP from 8.0% to 9.2% for 2022, and growth in GDP from 1.0% to 0.0% for 2023. The 2024 GDP growth forecast increased 0.2 ppt to 1.7%, and the estimate for long-term growth in GDP also rose 0.4 ppt to 1.4%," the CBR commented.

"The survey was conducted on April 13 to 19, 2022. The survey methodology calculated the median results of the forecasts of 27 economists from various organizations that participated in the survey. If a respondent provided an interval, then the middle was accounted in the calculation," the CBR specified.