IEA expects cuts in demand, growth in output from OPEC+ and U.S. to assist in avoiding intensified oil shortages

MOSCOW. April 13 (Interfax) - Enormous uncertainty overshadows the prospects for worldwide oil supplies at the beginning of Q2 2022, with Russia's oil output being the largest factor, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report.

Sanctions against Russia could result in a decline of 1.5 million barrels per day in April in the country's oil production, if the sanctions are tightened, and the drop in output could double to 3 million bpd in May, according to the IEA's report.

"Weaker growth in demand and the robust rise in production in the Middle East and OPEC+ countries, as well as the United States and other non-OPEC+ countries, should prevent a major shortage from developing despite the scale of disruptions in supplies of Russian oil," the IEA said.

Consequently, the IEA has reduced its estimate for oil supplies from non-OPEC countries by 300,000 bpd to 65 million bpd for Q1 2022; though it has increased its outlook by 400,000 bpd to 63.7 million bpd for Q2 2022; and once again reduced its forecast by 200,000 bpd to 64.4 million bpd for Q3 2022, and by 100,000 bpd to 64.8 million bpd for Q4 2022. The IEA has estimated non-OPEC shipments to be 64.5 million bpd for the year overall, a reduction of 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast.