Second Covid-19 wave in Russia on same scale as first one unlikely - Health Minister Murashko
MOSCOW. July 3 (Interfax) - Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko believes that the coronavirus situation the country encountered previously is unlikely to be repeated, as treatment and prevention systems have already been developed, and immunity has been acquired.
"A second wave on the same scale as the first one is unlikely. We've acquired certain immunity and have created a system of treatment and prevention. Therefore, a repeat of this scenario in the full format is unlikely, but there could be an increase in morbidity rates if rules of conduct aren't observed," Murashko said in an interview with Interfax on Friday.
On the whole, a rise in Covid-19 rates, albeit on a smaller scale, is possible, "if one behaves like 'Covid-dissidents'", ignoring existing restrictions, he said.
The mortality rate in Russia may grow 1.5-2% since the beginning of this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, Murashko said.
"There is no official Rosstat data for May at this point, but we can see from current information that the mortality rate will go up. On the whole, it is possible that the mortality rate will increase 1.5-2% since the beginning of 2020," he said.
"This includes deaths caused by the coronavirus itself, as well as comorbidities impacted by Covid-19, say, in patients with coronary heart disease. The same happens during flu epidemics," he said.
Murashko explained why the statistical data from Moscow (where the mortality rate grew from nearly 10,000 to over 15,000 in May) should not be a subject of comparative analysis. "The spread is faster in highly urbanized areas, so one should not directly compare Moscow and Russia. Whenever we calculate the amount of required assistance and the probability of deaths, we keep in mind population density. It is much higher in Moscow," he said.
If restrictive measures had not been imposed, millions could have died from Covid-19 in Russia, Murashko said.
Interfax journalists told the minister about research suggesting that coronavirus could have claimed the lives of four million people in Russia if relevant restrictions had not been introduced.
"These would have been comparable figures. A large number of countries predicted such amounts," Murashko said.
"Does it mean that there would have been millions of victims in our country?" the journalists asked. "Potentially, yes," the minister replied.
Forty deaths of doctors from coronavirus have been confirmed in Russia, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said.
"The most precise and verified information is the number of cases in which lump-sum indemnities have been paid. The Social Insurance Fund has paid 40 indemnities by now. A few other cases are being investigated," Murashko said.
All things considered, Russia is unlikely to be able to return to full-fledged life following the coronavirus pandemic before February 2021, Murashko said.
"What is normal life? It's going to concerts, flights, full-fledged work, full-fledged vacations. But, in my opinion, this is unlikely to happen earlier than February. The virus transmission chain should be broken first," he said.
As to resuming international flights, such decisions need to be adopted in a bilateral format with countries where the coronavirus situation has already normalized, as there can be no uniform approach to this issue, Mikhail Murashko told Interfax.
"Such decisions are made based on the situation in other countries, depending on the epidemiological situation in this or that country. There can be no general go-ahead here," he said upon being asked when Russia could resume regular international passenger flights.
"These decisions ought to be adopted in a bilateral format," he said.
It was reported in April that the United States had launched a full-scale inquiry in order to establish the origin of the novel coronavirus and the reason why China had been unable to ensure its fast containment. According to one of the theories reported by the media, Washington does not rule out that the virus originated from a research lab in Wuhan.
Russia has no information that the novel coronavirus has artificial origin, the minister said.
"We have no information that the virus has artificial origin," Murashko said.