Russian industry could rise 6.6% in Feb - analysts
MOSCOW. March 1 (Interfax) - Russian industry grew 6.6% and inflation was probably 1.0% in February, analysts from investment companies, banks and think tanks said in their month-end consensus forecast for Interfax.
Industry could grow 4.7% in the year, compared with the 4.1% the analysts were forecasting a month ago.
Fixed capital investment could fall 1.1% in February but grow 7.6% in the year.
Retail could grow 1.8% in February and 4.1% in the year.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for Feb 2011 and full-year 2011 and 2012:
| Feb 2011 | 2011 | 2012 | 2011 (official *) | 2012 (official*) | |
| GDP (real terms, as % of previous year) | 103,8 | 104,0 | 104,2 | 103,9 | |
| Industrial production (real terms, as % of previous year) | 106,6 | 104,7 | 104,3 | 104,1 | 103,8 |
| Urals crude. Average for year ($/barrel | 85 | 84 | 81 | 83 | |
| Fixed capital investment (real terms, as % of previous year) | 98,9 | 107,6 | 105,7 | 109,0 | 104,0 |
| Retail turnover (real terms, as % of previous year) | 101,8 | 104,1 | 105,0 | 104,8 | 105,6 |
| Real incomes,% | 103,7 | 104,2 | 103,2 | 104,0 | |
| Unemployment, % as at end of period | 7,0 | 6,6 | |||
| Inflation, % for period | 1,0 | 8,5 | 7,7 | 6-7 | 5-6 |
| Central Bank refinancing rate at end period, % | 8,5 | 8,25 | |||
| Producer prices, % for period | 1,3 | 12,1 | 10,3 | ||
| Ruble/euro rate, at end of period | - | 39,6 | 39,8 | - | |
| Ruble/dollar rate, at end of period | - | 29,2 | 29,3 | 31,3 **) | 31,3 **) |
| Gold and forex reserves, at end of period, $ bln | - | 538 | 577 | ||
| Net private sector capital inflow/outflow, $ bln, for period | - | 0 | 10 | 10 | |
| Export, $ bln | 38,2 | 421 | 438 | 414,3 | 434,8 |
| Import, $ bln | 18,6 | 291 | 331 | 286,2 | 315,3 |
*) adjusted Russian Economic Development Ministry forecast for 2011-2013, approved by government in September ('2b' forecast)
**) average annual ruble/dollar rate
Analysts from BDO, Gazprombank, Institute of Transition period Economics, Otkritie Financial Corporation, Trust, Uralsib, Renaissance Capital, troika Dialog, Unicredit and the Economics Expert Group took part in the consensus forecast.