Russian industry up 6.5%, prices 0.1% in July - analysts
MOSCOW. Aug 1 (Interfax) - Russian industrial output could have grown 6.5% in June and inflation might have been 0.1%, analysts from investment companies, banks and think tanks said in their month-end consensus forecast for Interfax.
The economy continued to grow in June, with GDP rising 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis thanks to a strong performance by the manufacturing, construction and retail sectors. Industrial output rose on a seasonally adjusted basis for the fourth month in a row, by 0.7%.
Fixed investment growth accelerated in Q2 after a weak showing in the first quarter, but it slowed as the second quarter progressed and grew just 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in June after jumping 5.3% in April and 4.3% in May, the Russian Economic Development Ministry estimates.
Consumer demand rose steadily for three months, with retail growing 0.5% in June compared with May.
The positive tendencies in recent months have made analysts upbeat about July and 2011 as a whole.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for July 2011 and full-year 2011 and 2012:
| July 2011 | 2011 | 2012 | 2011 (official*) | 2012 (official*) | |
| GDP (real terms, as % of previous year) | 104,2 | 104,1 | 104,2 | 103,5 | |
| Industrial production (real terms, as % of previous year) | 106,5 | 105,0 | 104,2 | 105,4 | 103,6 |
| Urals crude. Average for year ($/barrel | 105 | 98 | 105 | 93 | |
| Fixed capital investment (real terms, as % of previous year) | 108,8 | 107,4 | 106,9 | 106,0 | 108,8 |
| Retail turnover (real terms, as % of previous year) | 105,6 | 105,0 | 105,0 | 103,8 | 104,5 |
| Real incomes,% | 102,5 | 104,9 | 101,5 | 104,0 | |
| Unemployment, % as at end of period | 6,7 | 6,2 | |||
| Inflation, % for period | 0,1 | 8,1 | 7,2 | 6,5-7,5 | 5-6 |
| Central Bank refinancing rate at end period, % | 8,5 | 8,0 | |||
| Producer prices, % for period | 0,7 | 14,1 | 8,7 | ||
| Ruble/euro rate, at end of period | - | 39,1 | 39,4 | - | |
| Ruble/dollar rate, at end of period | - | 28,6 | 29,3 | 28,4 **) | 27,9 **) |
| Gold and forex reserves, at end of period, $ bln | - | 544 | 573 | ||
| Net private sector capital inflow/outflow, $ bln, for period | - | -24 | 5 | ||
| Export, $ bln | 44,4 | 502 | 498 | 503,8 | 494,4 |
| Import, $ bln | 29,2 | 326 | 368 | 308,7 | 352,4 |
*) Russian Economic Development Ministry forecast for 2011-2014, approved by government in April
**) average annual ruble/dollar rate
Analysts from BDO, Alfa-Bank , Gazprombank, Otkritie Financial Corporation, Sberbank , Uralsib, Troika Dialog and Trust took part in the survey.
