Russian GDP growth slows to 3.4% in Q2 - Rosstat
MOSCOW. Aug 11 (Interfax) - Russian GDP grew an estimated 3.4% year-on-year in Q2 2011, compared with 4.1% growth in Q1, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said.
This is below the Russian Economic Development Ministry's preliminary forecast of 3.7% growth for Q2.
Rosstat did not say what growth for the first half of 2011 was, but this was an estimated 3.8%, judging by the Q1 and Q2 figures. The Econ Ministry forecast 3.9% growth.
GDP growth slowed in Q2 partly because figures were high a year previously: year-on-year growth was only 3.5% in Q1 2011, rising to 5.0% in Q2 (4.3% in H1 2010). The economy grew 3.1% in Q3 and 4.5% in Q4 2010, and 4.0% in the year.
Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said in July that GDP could grow 4.5% this year - above the ministry's official forecast for 4.2% growth.
"In the second half, we expect an acceleration of GDP growth with increased investment and from the standpoint of demand. Secondly, with growth in agriculture. In the third and fourth quarters of last year there was drop in agriculture and now there will be substantial growth in it," Klepach said.
Klepach could not say whether the 4.2% growth forecast would be adjusted. "I'm not prepared to say if we will get to 4.2% or a little higher or a little lower. There is a varying range of estimates - from 4% to 4.5%. We will present an adjusted forecast at the end of August," he said.
Klepach was talking at a time when oil prices were higher and the Econ Ministry even expected Urals crude would average at more than the officially forecast $105 a barrel in 2011, but the drop in oil prices in recent days has exposed the fragility of such forecasts.
Analysts told Interfax in a consensus forecast at the end of July that they thought GDP would grow 4.2% in 2011.