Russia should move Sberbank share sale back if markets still volatile - analysts
MOSCOW. Aug 16 (Interfax) - It would make sense to move back the privatization of shares in Sberbank , planned for the autumn, if markets remain volatile, analysts told Interfax.
Central Bank First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev told Interfax in an interview late Monday that plans to privatize part of the government stake in the bank still stand and that a road show would begin in September.
"So far, we have no changes," he said, when asked whether Sberbank is still planning to privatize a part of the state stake in September amid market volatility.
At the same time, both the Central Bank and Sberbank will be heeding the recommendations of financial advisors carefully, he said.
The government plans to privatize up to 7.6% of the Central Bank's shares in Sberbank this autumn by selling them on the open markets. The CB estimates the block of shares is worth at least $6 billion.
"As for the possible price, despite the fact that Sberbank is still a fundamentally attractive story, the high degree of uncertainty over the outlook for the global and Russian economies is not encouraging demand," VTB Capital analyst Mikhail Shlemov said. He said the privatization might be moved back to H1 2012.
Finam analyst Konstantin Romanov said that it would make sense to delay the sale until H1 2012 if the market environment does not improve, but that Sberbank might take the opportunity to sell its shares if the markets do straighten out by the middle of autumn.
Uralsib analyst Leonid Slipchenko said an opportunity to privatize Sberbank might arise at the end of Q3 or early Q4 this year, when "business activity returns to the markets, everything is restored. It would be possible then, I don't see any major risks," Slipchenko said.
The markets situation could improve just as quickly as it deteriorates, and preparations for Sberbank's privatization have been long under way. "Generally, the setting for the bank and the placement remain fairly positive, but clearly putting such a volume on the market right now might not be very successful," Slipchenko said.
Finam's Romanov said selling shares in Sberbank at current prices would not be very good for the state. "Placing them at current prices does not look advisable from the point of view of the state, represented by the CB, so the placement will probably be delayed if the market situation does not improve," he said.
Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Troika Dialog are acting as financial consultants for the Sberbank share sale.
The Central Bank owns a 57.6% voting stake in Sberbank. None of the bank's other shareholders owns more than 0.3%.
The CB's Ulyukayev also commented on the privatization of the VTB bank. He said the "non-straightforward" global financial situation would have to be taken into consideration when a portion of shares in this bank is sold.
"Of course the market is currently unfavorable to privatize these stakes in VTB, but it is clearly very fluid. We just have to assess the situation very carefully, thoroughly, and be prepared to submit our decision depending on the situation in the markets," he told Interfax.
VTB's involvement in the Bank of Moscow bailout "is not a major impediment" to the privatization of shares in VTB, the country's second biggest bank, he said.
The government's plans to privatize VTB in the period 2011-2013 envisage the sale of 35.5% of the bank's shares. A first 10% of this has already been sold and the next 10% ought to be sold in 2012.
The state owns 75.5% of VTB.
