Belarusian trade deficit will be less than 9% of GDP in 2011 - ministry
MINSK. Aug 26 (Interfax) - Belarus's foreign trade deficit this year will not exceed the projected level of 9% of GDP, and could well be even lower, head of the Belarusian Economy Ministry's main department for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting Anton Dolgovechny said at a Friday briefing.
"If there are no factors of substantially increased domestic demand, then the trend of Belarusian producers orienting themselves toward foreign markets will strengthen, and the foreign trade balance will not worsen strongly. We will be not only within the forecast parameters, but the indicator could even be better," Dolgovechny said.
Positive trends in foreign trade have been engendered by the currency devaluation and drop in domestic demand, he said.
Citing preliminary figures, Dolgovechny said that the pace of export growth in January-July exceeded that of import growth by roughly twelve percentage points. The Economy Ministry estimates that Belarus had a surplus in its foreign goods trade of $100-$150 million in July. Factoring in services, it was over $250 million. In June, the deficit in foreign trade in goods and services was $354 million, or 7.6% of GDP.
Dolgovechny identified as a positive trend the growing proportion of exports in the overall amount of industrial production. In the first quarter, it was less than 50%, but it was over 59% in Q2 and 64% in July, according the initial evaluation. "Our industry is to a greater degree oriented toward exporting. The main reason is a reduction in aggregate [domestic] demand, restricted issue crediting, and increased budgetary discipline," he said.
Belarus posted a deficit in its foreign trade in goods and services of $7.426 billion last year (13.6% of GDP), 34.6% more than in 2009.