Inflation 0.5%-1% higher than official forecast for 2012-2014 more realistic - Audit Chamber
MOSCOW. Oct 13 (Interfax) - Russia's Audit Chamber suggests that a more realistic forecast for inflation in 2012-2014 is 0.5% to 1% higher than the official government forecast, deputy Audit Chamber chief Valery Goreglyad said at a Thursday press conference.
"Our estimates are that each year 0.5%-1% higher than in the forecast is more realistic," Goreglyad said.
The Audit Chamber does not doubt the Economic Development Ministry's macroeconomic forecast for 2012-2014, but thinks it rather optimistic. "As to inflation, we do not doubt the figures [forecast by the ministry], we understand where they are taken from, but the percentage of likelihood those figures will be achieved is insufficiently high to build into the forecast," he said.
Theoretically, 4.5% inflation in 2014 is possible, but there are high risks to achieving it that would make it difficult, Goreglyad said. "If the government and Central Bank conduct coordinated monetary-lending policy and stick to their promises, then we could reduce inflation," he said. The Audit Chamber estimates that 6.5% inflation next year is more realistic.
