MTS net profit to drop 35% for Q3 because of rate differences - consensus forecast
MOSCOW. Nov 18 (Interfax) - Russian top-3 cellular provider OJSC Mobile TeleSystems MTS), according to a consensus forecast of banking and investment analysts surveyed by Interfax, will post $311 million in net profit for the third quarter of 2011, which is a 35% drop from $475 million in net profit for the same period of 2010.
The provider's profit was negatively influenced by the Russian ruble's weakening rate, as well as sped-up amortization of equipment in various regions following their replacement, VTB Capital analyst Viktor Klimovich said in a note.
The company's sales revenue is expected to increase by 9.6% to $3.19 billion. According to Igor Semenov from Deutsche Bank, the revenue result has been positively impacted by the rising penetration of smartphones and wireless modems, as well as an increase in sales for MTS' retail chain. The company's revenue also went up thanks to acquiring of regional broadband operators.
The company's OIBDA is forecast at $1.36 billion (up 3.9%) while the OIBDA margin is expected to decrease from 45% to 42.6%. "We expect that the company's results, such as the margin, will be better than Vimpelcom and Megafon since MTS has been less active in expanding its subscriber base in Russia (the operator reported a net decrease in subscribers over the period by 1 million to 70 million persons)," analysts at Uralsib Financial Corporation said.
MTS will publish its US GAAP results for the third quarter of 2011 on November 21.
Analysts forecast of 14 investment companies and banks for MTS' Q3 results (in mlns of dollars):
| Bank/Investment Company | Sales revenue | OIBDA | OIBDA Margin | Net profit |
| Credit Suisse | 3 167 | 1 346 | 42.5 | 271 |
| Deutsche Bank | 3 173 | 1 356 | 42.7 | 257 |
| Goldman Sachs | 3 166 | 1 387 | 43.8 | 305 |
| Morgan Stanley | 3 235 | 1 374 | 42.5 | 500 |
| Alfa-Bank | 3 150 | 1 310 | 41.6 | 340 |
| VTB Capital | 3 156 | 1 381 | 43.7 | 289 |
| Gazprombank | 3 204 | 1 273 | 39.7 | 203 |
| Otkritie | 3 203 | 1 407 | 43.9 | 365 |
| Raiffeisenbank | 3 230 | 1 392 | 43.1 | 328 |
| Renaissance Capital | 3 194 | 1 371 | 42.9 | 291 |
| TCB Capital | 3 175 | 1 325 | 41.7 | 288 |
| Troika Dialog | 3 190 | 1 376 | 43.1 | 315 |
| Uralsib | 3 177 | 1 379 | 43.4 | 353 |
| UniCredit | 3 255 | 1 368 | 42 | 244 |
| Consensus | 3 191 | 1 360 | 42.6 | 311 |
| Q3 2010 | 2 911 | 1 309 | 45 | 475 |
| Change, in % | 9.6 | 3.9 | - 2.4 p.p. | - 35 |
