Russia to see capital outflow in 2011-2012, inflow no sooner than 2013 - Klepach
LONDON. Nov 30 (Interfax) - Capital outflow from Russia could reach $80 billion this year and around $20 billion in 2012, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach told Interfax.
"In 2011, capital outflow could reach approximately $80 billion and next year around $20 billion. We expect moreover that capital will start to flow in from the second half of 2012," Klepach said.
But the overall trend will not be reversed this side of 2013, he said at a banking forum in London. "We are only expecting an overall positive financial account [capital inflow] in 2013-2014," he said, adding that capital inflow in those years could be $20 billion-$30 billion annually.
The Econ Ministry has said capital outflow might be $50 billion in 2011 and zero in 2012. The Central Bank said in its latest forecast that $70 billion outflow was possible in 2011 and zero in 2012.
Net capital outflow was around $64 billion in January-October 2011, including $13 billion in October and $14 billion in September, the Central Bank has said.
Capital outflow was $38.3 billion in 2010.
The Econ Ministry had expected inflow to commence early next year. Its most recent forecast, approved by the government in September, sees zero inflow in 2012, $15 billion net inflow in 2013 and $30 billion net inflow in 2014.
The Central Bank says in its monetary policy outline, which the government discussed in September, that the tendency for capital to flow out of Russia might be bucked in 2012, and that zero inflow was likely in 2012 if oil trades at $100 a barrel.
The CB forecasts sustained capital inflow growth of $10 billion-$15 billion per year from 2013.