MOSCOW. Nov 30 (Interfax) - Russian GDP growth could be 4.5% this year, following adjustment by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said at a forum in London.

"Following adjustment by Rosstat, [GDP growth in 2011] will be closer to 4.5%, "Klepach said.

The Econ Ministry is forecasting 4.2% growth for 2011, which is higher than budgeted growth.

The economy's downturn during the crisis years will be compensated at the end of 2011 and beginning of 2012, Klepach said. "Obviously, the GDP dynamic will roughly correspond to growth in world prices [on raw materials]. The failures of the crisis that occurred at the end of 2008 to mid-2009 will be almost entirely compensated for by the end of this year and the beginning of the next," he said.

The Econ Ministry estimates GDP grew 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October compared with September and 5.6% compared with October 2010. It estimates the economy grew 4.3% year-on-year in January-October 2011.

The ministry thinks the Rosstat will adjust GDP data for H1 2011 for wholesale trade, figures for which were revised up 4.9 percentage points in Q1 (from 98.5% to 103.4%) and by 5.2 pp in Q2 from 97.9% to 103.1%. Also, retail data was revised up 0.3 pp in Q1 and 0.2 pp in Q2. The ministry estimates that these revisions could add 0.44 pp to H1 2011 GDP.

In an analysis of the Russian economy's stability, the ministry concluded that in the case of a drop in oil prices to $60 per barrel, GDP growth could hover at zero or enter negative territory, while the federal budget deficit could reach 5% of GDP, Klepach said. "In this case, the estimate is minus 1.4% - a possible fall in GDP along with a significant drop in the ruble and a sharp increase in capital outflow," he said.

However, even in such a case, economic growth would recover in 2013-2014, he said. Low government and corporate debt would smooth out the effects of such a shock even as early as 2012, Klepach said.

"This is a conservative forecast. There are significant risks, and in that sense we can't be in safe waters (