Pork price growth to slow, meat and poultry price growth to quicken in Russia in 2012 - expert
MOSCOW. Jan 13 (Interfax) - Wholesale pork price growth in Russia will slow down this year, while meat and poultry price growth will slightly accelerate, head of the Agricultural Marketing Institute Elena Tyurina told Interfax.
At the same time, growth in beef prices will stay at its 2011 level, she said.
"Last year, there was price growth in all segments of the meat market, which can be explained by a falling level of dependence on imports and a weakening of competition between domestic producers," she said.
In 2011, beef prices grew by 15%, pork prices rose by 10%, and meat and poultry prices were up by 4%. "Last year, the price gap between broiler meat and so-called red meat [pork and beef] grew, which is an additional stimulus for growth in poultry demand," Tyurina said.
Due to an increase in pork production in 2012, pork price growth could slow to 5%-7%. "Higher growth rates will provoke a decrease in demand," she said.
"Given that the import quota for pork has been reduced for this year, one can say that the market will show a slight shortage in certain categories of this meat, especially imports of fat and trimmings," she said. On the other hand, this could serve as a stimulus for Russian producers to expand their product assortment.
Russia's import quota for pork is 400,000 tonnes for 2012, compared to 472,100 tonnes in 2011. The quota for pig trimmings is 30,000 tonnes (27,900 tonnes).
"There will be growth in chicken meat prices, but no more than 5%, compared to 4% last year," Tyurina said. An increase in domestic production could serve as a constraining factor for sharper price hikes, she said.
As a whole, the meat market will develop along the same trajectory in 2012 as it did in 2011, she said. "However, Russia's accession to the WTO could bring future adjustments - there is already information that several investors are beginning to freeze their projects," Tyurina said, adding that quotas on imports into Russia will be maintained until 2020.
