General impact of CES without Ukraine to 2030 - $900 bln, with Ukraine - $1.1 bln - Study
MOSCOW. Jan 24 (Interfax) - The total cumulative effect of establishing a Common Economic Space for its members without Ukraine for 2011-2030 could be $900 billion (in 2010 prices) or over $1.1 trillion with Ukraine.
This forecast is contained in a joint study of the macroeconomic impact of different types of economic cooperation between Ukraine and the Customs Union countries and the CES in the framework of EurAsEC. The study was compiled by the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Economic Forecasting, Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences Institute of Economics and Forecasting and the Eurasian Development Bank Center for Integration Studies.
Not participating in the development of integration in the post-Soviet area will mean Ukraine will maintain the sector structure of its economy and, as a consequence, potentially see a slowdown in economic growth, the experts say. One reason could be a lack of opportunities for increasing export volumes in various industries and sectors that are important for the country.
The study shows that the most dynamic restructuring of the Ukrainian economy favouring industries with a higher level of processing would be achieved by joining the CES with subsequent technological convergence between the countries. This would boost the share of engineering in Ukraine's gross output from 6% to 9%.
The total positive impact of this type of integration for the Ukrainian economy is estimated at $219 billion (at 2010 prices) in 2012-2030, or $12.2 billion per year.
The impact of deep economic integration in the four countries is estimated at around 14% of GDP for Belarus, 6% for Ukraine, 3.5% for Kazakhstan and 2% for Russia, the study says.
Deeper integration between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus within the CES through development of trade relations, cooperation and alignment of technological development will provide a long-term economic impact of 2.5% additional growth in consolidated GDP for the three states, Eurasian Development Bank Chairman Igor Finogenov was cited as saying.
