CONSENSUS: Analysts expect 11% drop in Rosneft Q4 US GAAP net profits
MOSCOW. Feb 2 (Interfax) - Net profits at Russian oil company Rosneft are expected to be down 11.2% year-on-year at $2.668 billion to US GAAP for the fourth quarter of 2011, according to a consensus forecast of twenty investment company and bank analysts surveyed by Interfax.
They anticipate, however, that the company will report net profits for the company will report net profits of $12.128 billion for last year as a whole, up 17% from 2010, when Rosneft releases its US GAAP report for the quarter and year on February 3.
The average market forecast for company EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) for Q4 is $4.951 billion (down 7%) and for 2011 - $22.732 billion (up 19%).
The analysts expect that Rosneft sales revenues for Q4 will be up 38% at $24.028 billion and up 46% at $92.052 billion for the year.
A number of analysts see negative effects on fourth-quarter financial figures from the cancellation of tax breaks for the Vankor deposit and higher tariffs at Russian oil pipeline company OJSC Transneft , lower oil prices than in the preceding quarter, and lower export volume.
However, Troika Dialog experts point out that Rosneft typically builds a substantial increase in spending on geological surveying into the last quarter of a year. "Despite an increase in production, higher prices, a favorable tax regime, and a weaker ruble, we expect that Rosneft will show a decrease in its financial results even though generally we don't foresee a similar dynamic for the sector generally," is the view at Troika Dialog.
Company and bank analyst forecasts:
| $ bln | Q4 2011 | 2011 | ||||
| company | Sales revenue | EBITDA | Net profit | Sales revenue | EBITDA | Net profit |
| Morgan Stanley | 23.555 | 5.460 | 3.040 | 91.579 | 23.241 | 12.500 |
| Alfa Bank | 23.866 | 5.158 | 2.988 | 91.890 | 22.939 | 12.448 |
| Unicredit | 24.017 | 5.216 | 2.942 | 92.041 | 22.997 | 12.402 |
| Renaissance Capital | 24.226 | 4.984 | 2.831 | 92.250 | 22.765 | 12.291 |
| UBS | 22.982 | 4.957 | 2.789 | 91.006 | 22.738 | 12.249 |
| Nomos | 24.620 | 5.420 | 2.770 | 92.644 | 23.201 | 12.230 |
| Societe Generale | 23.676 | 4.458 | 2.760 | 91.700 | 22.239 | 12.220 |
| Metropol | 23.641 | 4.906 | 2.718 | 91.665 | 22.687 | 12.178 |
| ING | 23.540 | 4.888 | 2.703 | 91.564 | 22.669 | 12.163 |
| Goldman Sachs | 23.852 | 5.063 | 2.680 | 91.876 | 22.844 | 12.140 |
| Troika Dialog | 24.120 | 4.876 | 2.663 | 92.144 | 22.657 | 12.123 |
| Otkritie | 24.322 | 5.084 | 2.637 | 92.346 | 22.865 | 12.097 |
| Uralsib | 24.142 | 4.808 | 2.620 | 92.166 | 22.589 | 12.080 |
| JP Morgan | 24.388 | 5.085 | 2.610 | 92.412 | 22.866 | 12.070 |
| VTB Capital | 23.928 | 4.862 | 2.609 | 91.952 | 22.643 | 12.069 |
| Citi | 24.200 | 4.900 | 2.600 | 92.224 | 22.681 | 12.060 |
| Sanford Bernstein | 23.934 | 4.941 | 2.596 | 91.958 | 22.722 | 12.056 |
| Deutsche Bank | 23.768 | 4.440 | 2.349 | 91.792 | 22.221 | 11.809 |
| BofA ML | 25.081 | 4.615 | 2.248 | 93.105 | 22.396 | 11.708 |
| Credit Suisse | 24.700 | 4.900 | 2.200 | 92.724 | 22.681 | 11.660 |
| Consensus | 24.028 | 4.951 | 2.668 | 92.052 | 22.732 | 12.128 |
| 2010 figures | 17.384 | 5.350 | 3.003 | 63.047 | 19.096 | 10.400 |
| Change, % | 38.2 | -7.5 | -11.2 | 46.0 | 19.0 | 16.6 |