Inflation in Russia 0.1% Feb 7-13
MOSCOW. Feb 15 (Interfax) - Inflation ran at 0.1% in Russia during the week February 7-13 as it did for thirteen consecutive weeks excepting January 17-23, when it was 0.2%, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) reported on Wednesday.
Since this year began, consumer prices had risen 0.7%, including 0.2% at the start of January. That was substantially less than in previous years, as Russia has seen inflationary surges in January and early February due to the indexation of tariffs charged by natural monopolies and significant increases in the price of fruits and vegetables. But, starting this year, the government has decided that indexation of prices for gas and electricity will happen on July 1. Also, a good 2011 harvest last year kept vegetable prices down and cereals prices continue to slide.
In February of last year, price growth in the first two weeks of the month amounted to 0.5%, and from January 1 to February 13 they were up 2.9%. February 2011 inflation as a whole was 0.8%.
Rosstat figures indicate that annual inflation as of February 13 had decreased to nearly 3.9% from 4.2% at end-January and 6.1% at end-December, the latest low in the history of modern Russia.
Last week the price of salt rose 1.0% and of granulated sugar 0.9%, while prices for pork, beef, lamb, and vodka were up 0.3%-0.6%. Buckwheat groats and millet prices were down 1.2%, and prices for eggs 0.6%.
Fruit and vegetable product prices averaged up 0.3%, including 1.4% for cabbage, 1.0% for carrots, and 0.8% for potatoes.
Prices for automotive gasoline declined 0.1% and those for diesel fuel were unchanged.
A statement issued by the Central Bank of Russia at the start of the month about its decision to keep interest rates as-is said that moving tariff indexation to mid-year helped to slow inflation in January. The bank took note of the temporary effect of this, and in the making of monetary-lending policy decisions will continue to base them on middle-term inflation forecasts. First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Ulyukayev said then that in his view, "Getting to 6% this year will be more complicated than [it was] to 6.1% last year."
Despite this encouraging start to the year, economists think inflation is likely to run at 6.6% for 2012 as a whole (which would be higher than 2011 inflation), as per a consensus forecast compiled by Interfax at the end of last year. Inflation was quite low in 2011 due to substantial price decreases for vegetables and cereals against a backdrop of a 2010 harvest hard-hit by summer heat and drought.
Annual inflation will continue to slide as the year wears on, but start to rise after tariff indexation July 1.
The official government forecast is 5%-6% inflation in 2012.