Russian industry up 4.5%, inflation 0.5% in Feb - analysts
MOSCOW. Feb 29 (Interfax) - Russian industrial output rose 4.5% and inflation was probably 0.5% in January, analysts from investment companies, banks and think tanks said in their month-end consensus forecast for Interfax.
The start of the year has not produced any clear trends, but impressive year-on-year industrial growth of 3.8% in January could be bettered in February, the analysts said.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for February, full-year 2012 and 2013:
| Feb 2012 | 2012 | 2013 | 2012 (official*) | 2013 (official*) | |
| GDP (real terms, as % of previous year) | 103,4 | 103,9 | 103,7 | 104,0 | |
| Industrial production (real terms, as % of previous year) | 104,5 | 103,5 | 104,1 | 103,4 | 103,9 |
| Urals crude. Average for year ($/barrel | 107 | 105 | 100 | 97 | |
| Fixed capital investment (real terms, as % of previous year) | 110,5 | 106,2 | 107,4 | 107,8 | 107,1 |
| Retail turnover (real terms, as % of previous year) | 106,7 | 104,7 | 105,1 | 105,5 | 105,3 |
| Real incomes,% | 103,3 | 102,9 | 105,0 | 104,8 | |
| Unemployment, % as at end of period | 6,3 | 6,0 | |||
| Inflation, % for period | 0,5 | 6,4 | 6,6 | 5-6 | 4,5-5,5 |
| Central Bank refinancing rate at end period, % | 7,75 | 7,5 | |||
| Producer prices, % for period | 1,2 | 7,4 | 8,6 | ||
| Ruble/euro rate, at end of period | - | 40,8 | 41,5 | ||
| Ruble/dollar rate, at end of period | - | 31,0 | 30,6 | 31,1 **) | 31,3 **) |
| Gold and forex reserves, at end of period, $ bln | - | 532 | 556 | ||
| Net private sector capital inflow/outflow, $ bln, for period | - | -26 | 9 | ||
| Export, $ bln | 42,5 | 523 | 537 | 533 | 536 |
| Import, $ bln | 26,4 | 357 | 396 | 397 | 445 |
*) Latest draft Russian Economic Development Ministry forecast, approved by the government in September and partially adjusted in December
**) average annual ruble/dollar rate
Analysts from Economic Policy Institute, Otkritie Financial Corporation, Sberbank , Raiffeisenbank, Rosbank, Uralsib and Troika Dialog took part in the survey.