CONSENSUS: Analysts expect TMK Q4 IFRS net profits to surge 240%
MOSCOW. March 15 (Interfax) - Analysts at eight investment companies and banks surveyed by Interfax say Pipe Metallurgical Company (TMK) net profits to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for the fourth quarter of last year will run to $73 million on average, which would be a 240% quarter-on-quarter increase.
The consensus forecast for consolidated Q4 sales revenues was $1.65 billion (up 2.6%) and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is anticipated at $251 million (up 24%).
TMK plans to release its consolidated IFRS financial report for Q4 on Friday, March 16.
Forecast TMK IFRS financial highlights for Q4 2011 ($mln unless otherwise noted):
| Investment bank or company | Sales revenue | EBITDA | Net profit |
| ING | 1 596 | 237 | 68 |
| Morgan Stanley | 1 624 | 249 | 88 |
| Alfa-Bank | 1 598 | 236 | 64 |
| BCS | 1 624 | 263 | 81 |
| VTB Capital | 1 716 | 300 | 14 |
| Renaissance Capital | 1 610 | 233 | 36 |
| Troika Dialog | 1 697 | 256 | 136 |
| Uralsib Capital | 1 693 | 233 | 100 |
| Consensus | 1 645 | 251 | 73 |
| Q3 2011 | 1 604 | 202 | 21 |
| Change, % | +2,6% | +24% | Up 3.4-fold |
| Q4 2010 | 1 647 | 293 | 2 |
| Change, % | 0 | -14% | Up 36.5-fold |
Judging from the company's figures for January-September 2011 and the consensus forecast, net profit for the year is expected at $352 million (230% up on 2010), EBITDA at $1.08 billion (up 14%), and sales revenues at $6.8 billion (up 22%).
According to Uralsib Capital forecasts for the fourth quarter, the company's U.S. assets should show a relatively good dynamic. Their EBITDA growth should help to push prices down for strips and metal scrap, as pipe prices in the United States did not change from the third quarter. The Russian segment's EBITDA margin, Uralsib Capital expects, will remain lower than the first-half level, despite a 13% increase in revenue from the sale of large-diameter pipe in Russia in the fourth quarter.
As reported, TMK increased pipe shipment 6.6% last year to 4.232 million tonnes. In the fourth quarter, shipment increased 0.8% from the preceding quarter to 1.037 million tonnes.
For the first nine months of 2011, TMK made $279 million in net profits. Sales revenues increased 31% over the period to $5.151 billion and EBITDA 27% to $827 million.
TMK is Russia's largest pipe producer, and has 24 enterprises in Russia, the United States, Romania and Kazakhstan, as well as two R&D centers in Russia and the U.S.
