China targets 3.9 bln tons of annual coal output by 2015 - NEA
Shanghai. March 22. INTERFAX-CHINA - The National Energy Administration, China's energy industry regulator, released its 12th Five-Year Coal Industry Development Plan earlier today.
The plan calls for national coal output to reach 3.9 billion tons annually by 2015. China produced 3.52 billion tons of coal last year, up 8.64 percent over the previous year.
Central and western China will continue to serve as national coal production bases, said the NEA, noting that the two regions are projected to produce a combined 3.44 billion tons of coal by the end of 2015, or approximately 88 percent of the national targets.
The plan also highlights coal transportation as an area for future expansion, noting that roughly two-thirds of 2015's coal output, or 2.6 billion tons, will be transported via railway by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period (2011-2015).
Data from the NEA shows that coal currently makes up around 70 percent of China's energy mix. The abundant but highly polluting energy source will continue to fuel China's economy for the foreseeable future, said the administration.
As of the end of 2010, China's proven coal reserves topped 1.34 trillion tons, according to NEA figures.
A number of industry observers believe the NEA's coal output targets are far too conservative and optimistic. Coal industry expert Qi Yingying told Interfax today that the administration's plan assumes significant improvements in industrial efficiency and renewable energy development. If advances in these two areas stall over the next few years, coal consumption will rise substantially, said Qi.
Concerns over environmental impact have China looking for ways to reduce the role of coal in its future energy mix. Industry consolidation in the country's major coal producing regions such as Shanxi Province and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region are aimed at improving efficiency and reducing coal mine casualties while also weaning the country off coal consumption. Furthermore, natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy sources are being trumpeted as future alternatives. However, none of the alternatives offer the abundant supply and cheap electricity of coal.
The expert added that national coal output oftentimes exceeds five-year targets. China's 2010 coal output totaled 3.24 billion tons, vastly exceeding 11th FYP targets of 2.6 billion tons for the same year, said Qi.
NEA Deputy Director Wu Yin addressed the 11th FYP coal production targets at a press conference in Beijing today stating that the administration vastly underestimated the country's economic growth during the period. The previous FYP projected 7.5 percent of economic growth annually, significantly less than the 11 percent achieved during the period.
-WV
