IMF lowers Armenian GDP growth forecast for 2012 to 3.8%
YEREVAN. March 28 (Interfax) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its forecast for Armenian GDP growth in 2012 from 4% to 3.8%, IMF Mission in Armenia Head Mark Horton said at a press conference following a visit to Yerevan from March 14 to 27 on Tuesday.
Horton noted that the rate of economic growth had slowed. The new forecast is lower than actual GDP growth in Armenia in 2011, which was 4.4%.
External factors are the main reason for the slower rate of economic growth, especially slower economic growth in Europe, said Horton. Among the domestic factors slowing growth is the continued slump in the construction industry, although all other sectors are registering growth.
Commenting on the inflation forecast, Horton said external price pressure is going down and inflation is expected to remain within the range given by the Central Bank of Armenia - 4%, give or take 1.5 percentage points.
The 2012 Armenian budget contains a GDP growth forecast of 4.2% and inflation of 4%, give or take 1.5 percentage points.
The Finance Ministry reports that GDP expanded 4.6% in 2011, in accordance with the budget forecast.
Inflation was 4.7% in 2011 and 9.4% in 2010. The 2011 budget had envisaged inflation of around 4% (give or take 1.5 percentage points).
The IMF predicted inflation of at least 5% per year in 2011-2012.
The World Bank predicts economic growth of 4.2% per year in 2012-2013 and inflation of 4%-4.5%.