Russian industry up 2.5% in April - analysts
MOSCOW. May 4 (Interfax) - Russian industrial output rose 2.5% in April, analysts from investment companies, banks and think tanks said in their monthly consensus forecast for Interfax.
GDP fell 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March after rising 0.5% in February, due mainly to a slump in industrial output, construction and investment. Industry grew just 2% year-on-year in March, and there were no particular reasons to expect better in April.
The analysts were a little too cautious about April inflation: they said inflation was probably 0.4% for the month, but the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said on May 4 that it was just 0.3%.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for April, full-year 2012 and 2013:
| April 2012 | 2012 | 2013 | 2012 (official *) | 2013 (official*) | |
| GDP (real terms, as % of previous year) | 103,6 | 103,8 | 103,4 | 103,8 | |
| Industrial production (real terms, as % of previous year) | 102,5 | 103,8 | 104,0 | 103,1 | 103,4 |
| Urals crude. Average for year ($/barrel | 107 | 104 | 115 | 97 | |
| Fixed capital investment (real terms, as % of previous year) | 104,8 | 106,5 | 107,2 | 106,6 | 106,4 |
| Retail turnover (real terms, as % of previous year) | 107,0 | 105,2 | 104,9 | 106,3 | 105,0 |
| Real incomes,% | 103,5 | 103,1 | |||
| Unemployment, % as at end of period | 6,3 | 6,0 | |||
| Inflation, % for period | 0,4 | 6,4 | 6,4 | 5-6 | 4,5-5,5 |
| Central Bank refinancing rate at end period, % | 7,5 | 7,5 | |||
| Producer prices, % for period | 1,2 | 7,2 | 7,6 | ||
| Ruble/euro rate, at end of period | - | 40,3 | 40,9 | ||
| Ruble/dollar rate, at end of period | - | 31,0 | 31,1 | 29,2 **) | 29,7 **) |
| Gold and forex reserves, at end of period, $ bln | - | 528 | 554 | ||
| Net private sector capital inflow/outflow, $ bln, for period | - | -33 | 6 | ||
| Export, $ bln | 44,5 | 522 | 534 | 558 | 526 |
| Import, $ bln | 30,0 | 362 | 391 | 370 | 407 |
*) Russian Economic Development Ministry forecast, approved by the government in April
**) average annual ruble/dollar rate
Analysts from Economic Policy Institute, Otkritie Financial Corporation, Alfa-Bank , Sberbank , Raiffeisenbank, Troika Dialog, Uralsib and Economic Expert Group took part in the survey.