OPEC lowers Russia oil production forecast due to Prirazlomnoye delays
VIENNA. May 10 (Interfax) - OPEC has lowered its 2012 oil production forecast for Russia due to delays with the Prirazlomnoye project.
"Russian oil supply is forecast to grow by 70 tb/d to average 10.34 mb/d in 2012, indicating a minor downward revision of 10 tb/d, compared with the previous month," says OPEC's latest monthly report.
"This revision partly reflects updated production data in the first quarter, as well as reported revisions to the Prirazlom field, where output was expected to start in 2012. However, recent reports suggest that the Prirazlom oil project will not start this year."
"According to preliminary data, Russia's oil supply experienced a gradual decline during the first four months; yet the month-on-month drop was very small to assume a declining trend for the rest of the year. However, with the delayed start-up of the Prirazlom field and smaller additions from the Vankor project, a mature oil production decline could have an impact on Russian production towards the end of this year.
On the other hand, the start-up of the West Siberian field Samburg, with around 30 tb/d of new barrels expected this year, is seen to support growth in 2012. Moreover, the recently announced tax-breaks for offshore development are expected to support investment in the coming period. On a quarterly basis, Russian oil supply is seen to average 10.34 mb/d, 10.32 mb/d, 10.34 mb/d and 10.36 mb/d respectively. In April, it averaged 10.31 mb/d, a decrease of around 30 tb/d from the previous month, and growth of 80 tb/d compared with the same period of 2011, according to preliminary data."