CONSENSUS: Novatek sustains Q1 profit to IFRS - analysts
MOSCOW. May 11 (Interfax) - OJSC Novatek is expected to post net profit to International Financial Reporting Standards of 19.06 billion rubles in the first quarter of 2012, up 1.1% on the first quarter of 2011, according to a consensus forecast made by 11 investment banks and companies.
The consensus forecast puts revenue at almost 50 billion rubles in the first quarter of 2012, up 11%. The increase in revenue is attributed to gas and liquid hydrocarbon production growth.
EBITDA is expected to have increased 2.6% to 23.7 billion rubles.
Renaissance Capital analysts anticipate an 8% drop in net profit without including the impact of exchange rate differences.
Uralsib analysts believe results to IFRS will not have an impact on share prices because investors are currently thinking about taxation changes in the sector as the government has decided to raise the extraction tax for independent gas production companies. "The main issue is whether the Russian authorities will give Novatek access to export markets in some form as compensation for losses associated with changes in taxation," Uralsib analysts said.
Novatek will publish its Q1 report on May 11.
Q1 results forecasts are shown below:
| Q1 2012 | bln. rubles | ||
| Company | Revenue | EBITDA | Net profit |
| Nomos | 52,350 | 23,603 | 19,669 |
| Troika Dialog | 50,419 | 24,094 | 20,174 |
| Deutsche Bank | 47,261 | 22,988 | 16,289 |
| Uralsib | 47,159 | 23,014 | 19,321 |
| Otkritie | 51,942 | 24,954 | 20,950 |
| Alfa Bank | 51,393 | 23,133 | 18,699 |
| Metropol | 47,180 | 23,961 | 19,476 |
| Citi | 51,272 | 24,068 | 20,901 |
| Gazprombank | 50,905 | 24,148 | 19,808 |
| Renaissance Capital | 51,131 | 23,555 | 15,436 |
| Morgan Stanley | 46,416 | 23,042 | 18,910 |
| Consensus | 49,766 | 23,687 | 19,058 |
| Q1 2011 | 44,861 | 23,092 | 18,853 |
| Change (%) | 10,9 | 2,6 | 1,1 |