Russian GDP growth down to 3.7% in April, 4.6% in 4M - Econ Development Ministry
MOSCOW. May 28. (Interfax) - Russia's GDP grew 3.7% year-on-year in April and 4.6% year-on-year for January-April 2012 as a whole, according to an Economic Development Ministry estimate published in a monitoring report on the Russian economy.
"In April of this year, there was a reduction in economic activity," the report said. Excluding the seasonal factor, GDP in April was down 0.1% compared to March (in March, it also declined 0.1%). "The reduction in April was caused primarily by the industrial production dynamic, and from the demand side - a decline in investments," the report said.
In the middle of May, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) published its first GDP estimate for the first quarter of this year. In relation to the same period of 2011, Russia's GDP was up 4.9%, or 0.9 percentage points above the Economic Development Ministry's preliminary estimate. As a result, the ministry adjusted its monthly GDP dynamic for January-March of this year. In January, GDP on a seasonally adjusted basis was stable (under the previous estimate it fell 0.1%). The GDP growth estimate for February was lowered to 0.3% (versus 0.5%), and for March GDP was estimated to drop 0.1% (versus 0.6%).
Excluding seasonal and calendar factors, industrial output was down 0.1% in April, after a 1.5% drop in March. The decline was most notable in mineral extraction (down 0.2%) and utilities production and distribution (down 0.9%). In manufacturing, production grew 0.1% after a 1.6% decrease in March.
After a January slump and restoration in February and March, investment activity was once again down in April. Fixed capital investments were down 1.4% over March, excluding seasonal factors.
Construction demonstrated a positive dynamic in April after negatives in the first three months of the year - by March, it had grown 1.8% (seasonality excluded). Meanwhile, the situation with housing construction deteriorated in April due to a 5.6% year-on-year decline in the commissioning of new houses (down 24% compared to March).
Growth in retail trade turnover has been slowing since February of this year (excluding seasonality) - 0.6% in February, 0.3% in March and 0% in April - pressured by a negative monthly dynamic in real disposable incomes (excluding seasonality) between January and March and 0% growth in March.
In April, the Economic Development Ministry lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2012 from 3.7% to 3.4%. If Rosstat's data for the first quarter remain unchanged, then the ministry's forecast will grow from 3.4% to 3.6% simply due to a more positive first quarter than previously estimated. According to schedule, the ministry will adjust its socio-economic forecast in August.
Analysts polled by Interfax forecast GDP growth at 3.6% for 2012 at the end of April. Last year, Russia's GDP grew 4.3%.