Moscow round of Iran talks will be small step forward - expert
MOSCOW. June 16 (Interfax) - While no radical solution to the Iranian nuclear problem will be reached at the six-party talks, there is a chance to preserve the dialogue proper, said Vladimir Sazhin, an expert on Iran of the Russian Institute of Oriental Studies.
"The best scenario of the Moscow talks would be to make a small, if barely comprehensible, step forward. I believe such a step will be made. No radical and final solution should be expected in Moscow or any time soon," Sazhin told Interfax on Friday.
Talks will take place and continue slowly because such a situation is advantageous to all the key players, the expert said. "All the parties, including Tehran, are keen on the negotiating process. For example, neither the final resolution, nor the absence of any possible solution to the Iranian issue has advantages to Barack Obama. Any option will prompt criticism against Obama, so he is most likely to be keen on the slow pace of negotiations," the expert said.
No radical changes in the Iranian position should be expected before June 2013 when Iran holds a presidential election, he said. "The presidential election will be held in June next year. It is predicted that the new president will be a man from the supreme leader's team which is in opposition to that of incumbent President Ahmadinejad. Such developments will lead not only to a final calm but also slight decline in tensions around Iran," Sazhin said.
"In that case, the new Iranian leadership will be able, without looking back at the opposition, to pursue a clearer nuclear policy. The Iranians too are keen on protracting the negotiating process. Especially when it comes to the nuclear program," the analyst said.
Nor does Moscow consider it necessary to rush with the negotiations, he said. "The Iranian program is one of the trump cards in the diplomatic game with the West," Sazhin said.
At the same time, failed talks would have dangerous consequences for Tehran, the expert said. "Hard times would then begin for Iran. A sharp decline in demand for Iranian oil could deal a very heavy, albeit not fatal, blow to the country's economy," the political analyst said.
As for the possibility of an Israeli military strike in the event of failed talks, there are some limitations here, Sazhin said. "It will unlikely make sense for Israel to go it alone and strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities. They will not manage it. They will only with Washington's support. If strikes are carried out with U.S. support, the Iranian nuclear program will be thrown five to seven years back," he said.
An Israeli attempt to strike against Iran alone is not very efficient militarily, and will prompt negative consequences politically, Sazhin said. "Israel alone will not achieve serious results. The effect will be the opposite. It will anger the entire Muslim world, including the countries which do not support Iran," the expert said.
The next round of talks between Iran and the six international mediators (the five United Nations Security Council Permanent Members plus Germany) will be held in Moscow on June 18-19.