Russian MinFin sees 2012 shortfall of no more than 100 bln rubles at $100 oil
MOSCOW. July 9 (Interfax) - The Russian Finance Ministry forecasts a federal budget shortfall of around 100 billion rubles this year if oil averages at $100 a barrel instead of the planned $115, Deputy Finance Minister Tatyana Nesterenko told reporters.
"We think the revenue shortfall due to the [change in] forecast will not be more than 100 billion rubles," she said.
She said a weaker ruble would offset the shortfall in revenue caused if oil traded below budget. "The exchange rate plays in reverse," she said.
The budget has been amended for a deficit of 0.1% of GDP at $115 oil, and originally had a deficit of 1.5% at $100 a barrel.
Nesterenko said a lower $100 per barrel this year would not have much of an impact on the budget as the anticipated revenue at $115 a barrel was not accompanied by more spending - the deficit was simply reduced. "Of course you always get risks, but we have not opted to spend at $115, but yes, there'll be less to bolster the Reserve Fund," she said.
The plan was to top the Reserve Fund up by 500 billion rubles this year, Nesterenko said. "Well, we won't be able to add another 500 billion rubles," she said, adding this would in no way affect approved spending commitments.