Russian industry up 2.9% in Aug, consumer prices 0.3% - analysts
MOSCOW. Aug 31. (Interfax) - Russian industrial output rose 2.9% in August, analysts from investment companies, banks and think tanks said in their monthly consensus forecast for Interfax.
Industry has been volatile, rising 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after falling 0.2% in June. Year-on-year growth was 3.4% in July, but the analysts see no reason for growth to accelerate in August.
Inflation, which quickened to 1.2% in July after service charges went up, could slow to 0.3% in August.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for August, full-year 2012 and 2013:
| August 2012 | 2012 | 2013 | 2012 (official*) | 2013 (official*) | |
| GDP (real terms, as % of previous year) | 103,6 | 103,4 | 103,5 | 103,7 | |
| Industrial production (real terms, as % of previous year) | 102,9 | 103,4 | 103,3 | 103,6 | 103,5 |
| Urals crude. Average for year ($/barrel | 108 | 105 | 109 | 97 | |
| Fixed capital investment (real terms, as % of previous year) | 101,7 | 106,9 | 107,0 | 105,5 | 107,2 |
| Retail turnover (real terms, as % of previous year) | 104,5 | 106,1 | 105,5 | 106,1 | 105,4 |
| Real incomes,% | 103,4 | 103,3 | 103,0 | 103,7 | |
| Unemployment, % as at end of period | 6,4 | 6,1 | |||
| Inflation, % for period | 0,3 | 6,6 | 6,5 | 7 | 5-6 |
| Central Bank refinancing rate at end period, % | 8,0 | 7,5 | |||
| Producer prices, % for period | 1,7 | 8,0 | 8,1 | ||
| Ruble/euro rate, at end of period | - | 39,9 | 41,0 | ||
| Ruble/dollar rate, at end of period | - | 32,3 | 32,3 | 31,3 **) | 32,4 **) |
| Gold and forex reserves, at end of period, $ bln | - | 525 | 543 | ||
| Net private sector capital inflow/outflow, $ bln, for period | - | -54 | -20 | - 50-60 | 0 |
| Export, $ bln | 43 | 533 | 532 | 534 | 500 |
| Import, $ bln | 22 | 351 | 383 | 343 | 375 |
*) Economic Development Ministry forecast, submitted to Finance Ministry at end August
**) Average USD/ruble rate for year
Analysts from the Economic Policy Institute, Otkritie Financial Corporation, Sberbank , Raiffeisenbank, Uralsib, ING, VTB Capital and Rosbank took part in the survey.
