IMF lowers Russian 2012-2013 GDP growth, budget surplus forecasts
MOSCOW. Oct 9 (Interfax) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2012 GDP growth forecast for Russia to 3.7%, from the 4% it was predicting in April.
The IMF said in its updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) that it expected the Russian economy to grow 3.8% in 2013, less than a previously forecast 3.9%.
In January, the IMF said it thought Russian GDP would grow 3.3% in 2012 and 3.5% in 2013.
"Russia's growth is projected at about 3.75 percent during 2012-13, led by domestic demand, which is supported by an expansionary fiscal stance and a rebound in credit growth. Growth is projected to moderate in the region's other energy-exporting economies, mainly owing to weaker growth in the energy sector, although strong public spending should help sustain activity in other sectors," the IMF said.
The IMF said the global economy was expected to grow 3.3% in 2012, compared with a previous forecast of 3.5%; and 3.6% in 2013 (3.9%). Developed economies could grow 1.3% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2012, and emerging economies - 5.3% and 5.6%, respectively.
CIS economies could grow 4% overall in 2012 (the IMF forecast 4.1% growth in June) and 4.1% in 2013 (unchanged).
"The global growth slowdown is projected to have a larger impact on some of the region's energy importing economies. Growth in Ukraine will slow to 3 percent in 2012 compared with more than 5 percent in 2011, driven by weaker export and domestic demand growth. In Belarus, lower domestic demand after the 2011 currency crisis will weigh on growth. In the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, activity is supported by strong remittances and import demand from Russia," the IMF said.
Consumer price growth in Russia could be 5.1% in 2012, compared with 8.4% in 2011, and 6.6% in 2013.
Russia's current account surplus could be 5.2% of GDP in 2012, compared with 5.3% in 2011, and 3.8% in 2013.
Unemployment could be 6% in 2012-2013, but below the 6.5% seen in 2011.
The IMF said in its Fiscal Monitor, also published on October 9, that it expected Russia to have a budget surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2012 and 0.2% in 2013, down from the 0.6% and 0.3% it was forecasting in April. In January, the IMF said it expected Russia would have a deficit of 1.4% of GDP in 2012 and 1.7% in 2013.
"To reduce vulnerability to external shocks, medium-term targets should be more ambitious" in Russia, the IMF said.
The IMF now expects public debt in Russia to rise to 11% of GDP in 2012, compared with 8.4% forecast in April, and 9.9% in 2013, compared with 7.9%. In January, the IMF forecast 11.2% of GDP for 2012 and 12.1% for 2013.
Budget revenue could be 37.7% of GDP in 2012 and 37.0% in 2013, and spending - 37.1% and 36.8%, respectively.
Emerging countries could have an overall deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2012 and 1.8% in 2013.
