Russian Econ Development Ministry expects sharp slowdown in capital outflow in Q4
MOSCOW. Oct 12 (Interfax) - The Russian Economic Development Ministry expects capital outflow to sharply decelerate in the fourth quarter as compared with the third due to seasonal factors, and it does not rule out the possibility of outflows reaching zero, Economic Development Minister Andrei Belousov told journalists in Moscow on Friday.
"We do not rule out that outflow could stop in the fourth quarter. Seasonal factors play a significant role here, and we believe that there may not be [outflow] in the fourth quarter," he said.
That said, the ministry still has not changed its capital outflow forecast for 2012 as a whole. "Our estimate for the year is some $60 billion, maybe about $65 billion," Belousov said, recalling that the Central Bank of Russia put capital outflow for January-September 2012 at $57.9 billion, including $13.6 billion in the third quarter alone.
Therefore, "there will be a sharp slowdown" in capital outflow in the fourth quarter, he said. In its forecast for 2013 the Economic Development Ministry anticipates zero capital outflow, which "is entirely possible," he said.
"Outflow is a balance value, and it is determined by outgoing flows and incoming. Incoming flows are essentially comprised of two components: foreign direct investment and companies' borrowing from abroad. The outflow that we are seeing right now is partly connected with the fact that borrowing from abroad has fallen dramatically," Belousov said.
