Russian GDP could grow 2.2%-2.4% in H1, 4% in H1 - Klepach
MOSCOW. Jan 29 (Interfax) - The Russian Economic Development Ministry expects the current pace of GDP growth to be sustained at 2% or slightly more in annual terms in the first and second quarters of 2013, accelerating to 4% and even higher in the second half, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach told reporters.
"We don't think growth will quicken very much in the first and second quarters and will be 2% or so. We expect considerable acceleration in the third and fourth quarters," Klepach said.
This will be due to the base effect, as agriculture "collapsed in the third quarter of 2012." Fixed investment data was also weak at the end of the year.
"At the same time we expect qualitative shifts where the launch of education and health care programs is concerned, and higher federal investment in transport infrastructure. The state order should have a significant impact this year as well. Also we expect exports to pick up in the second half. This will make it possible to lift the rate of growth to 4% or perhaps even more in the second half of the year," he said.
"SO we are expecting 2.2%-2.4% growth in the first half, roughly the same as in the fourth quarter of 2012, and up to 4% or so in the second half," Klepach said.'
The Econ Ministry forecasts the economy will grow 3.6% in 2012, compared with 3.5% in 2012, but says the growth could slow to 3% if current tendencies for it to slow persist.
Klepach said this was actual growth, but potential growth is higher at 4%-5%. "Potential growth is higher, but we are not using it to the full. This is our ministry's position. Potential growth is between 4% and 5%," he said.
Unemployment in Russia fell to 5.3% by the end of the year, and natural unemployment to around 5%. "But experts think natural unemployment ought to be 6%, that our labor market has overheated. All this requires serious analysis and discussion," he said.
Capacity utilization is around 70%, according to official data, but some surveys indicate 80%.
Klepach said that in order to boost growth rates and use potential, "the factor of demand is important, as is monetary easing and some reduction in interest rates, and sustaining the fairly steady level of lending growth to the real sector."
Budgetary policy also needs to be eased. "This is also demand, state procurements and investments," Klepach said.
"But the main thing is not a shortage of demand but how to change the quality of the labor force, of capital, how to overcome structural imbalances and bottlenecks. Here we agree with the Finance Ministry and Central Bank," Klepach said. He said it was important to ease monetary and budgetary policy and at the same time carry out structural changes.
