Load on Russian railways drops 6.3% in January - source
MOSCOW. Feb 1 (Interfax) - The average daily load on the rail lines in Russia was 3.071 million tonnes last month, down a bit over 6% year-on-year, a source close to the operations of OJSC Russian Railways (RZD) told Interfax.
The total figure for the month was 95.189 million tonnes. RZD has said that the load was 101.6 million tonnes in January of last year, so the year-on-year decrease was 6.3%.
RZD confirmed these figures officially on Friday. The company said that the rail transport of oil and oil products was down 2.8% at 21.9 million tonnes, of construction materials 18.3% at 9.7 million tonnes, of iron and manganese ore 3.8% at 8.5 million tonnes, of ferrous metals 6.2% at 5.9 million tonnes, of chemical and mineral fertilizers 2.3% at 3.9 million tonnes, of timber 4.6% at 2.6 million tonnes, of chemicals and coda 6% at 2.3 million tonnes, of industrial raw and formed materials 18.3% at 2.1 million tonnes, of non-ferrous ores and raw sulphur 10.7% at 1.7 million tonnes, of cement also 10.7% at 1.6 million tonnes, of ferrous metal scrap 8.9% at 700,000 tonnes, and of grain 58% at 700,000 million tonnes.
Only shipments of bituminous coal and coke were up in January - 0.9% to 26.8 million tonnes and 0.6% to 1.03 million tonnes, respectively.
Total freight turnover was down 7.3% at 178.1 billion tonne-kilometers, and including empty miles - 7.9% at 226.7 billion t/km.
These figures were higher than planned by RZD, which had foreseen a drop in daily load of 7.1% for the month and growth only in the freightage of coal. The decrease was gradually offset by the end of the month. Experts have pointed to the 'high basis' of January 2012, when "RZD cargo turnover increased an appreciably 11.5% year-on-year, and freight volume 4.8% amid increased shipments of grain and construction materials," Uralsib Capital analyst Denis Vorchik said in his own study. "We expect an increase in the dynamics of railway cargo carriage in the first half of 2013 will be achieved," he said.
Market operators say shipment rates are going down in several segments. "AT the end of 2012, operator tariffs in the segment of shipments in gondolas decreased 10%-15% on average. The unfavorable situation continued in January," one said. Among the main reasons for this, this operator said, was a seasonal drop in economic activity, particularly in the field of construction and "a complicated state of market affairs for metallurgical and coal companies."
RZD expects February slippage in the average daily load will slow to 2.8%-4.3% to 3.2-3.25 tonnes. It is worth noting that in February of last year there was a increase of 0.7% after 4.8% in January. The company attributes that slowdown to poor weather conditions in much of the country in the first half of February and to "the unsatisfactory work with rolling stock of a number of enterprises." Problems arose on approaches to ports, resulting in RZD sending representatives to handle traffic hands-on. It bears mentioning that sector operators have made mention of RZD's own technological problems.
Forecasts for this year vary. RZD President Vladimir Yakunin said last fall that growth could run to 2.5%. However, the company's conservative estimates allow for a drop in freight load of 0.5%, as an explanatory note accompanying the RZD financial plan submitted for government approval says. RZD said that it was taking into account the risks of a negative impact on Russia from the economic situation in China and the Eurozone, and was relying on information from freight-shippers on long-term agreements with major holdings and forecasts for the situation on domestic and external markets.