Industrial output growth in Russia quickens in Jan - HSBC
MOSCOW. Feb 1 (Interfax) - The rate of industrial output growth in Russia quickened last month amid an appreciable increase in new orders, according to an HSBC study.
The main research indicator, the seasonally adjusted HSBC bank PMI index for Russian manufacturing sectors, which tracks the development of the overall state of market affairs, rose to 52 points in January from 50 points the month before. HSBC says that any figure above 50 points indicates expanding business activity, while a number lower than that indicates a decline.
The January PMI manufacturing sectors index was virtually the same as the average long-term 52.1 points, and indicates appreciable overall market growth in those sectors in Russia.
New orders in manufacturing sectors increased at the highest rate since March of 2011 amid substantially more demand on the domestic market. The increase of new export orders also stabilized in January after a contraction the month before. The overall growth in new orders exceeded the average long-term level of the research.
The substantial increase in new orders led to a rise in unfinished orders in the Russian manufacturing sectors. The overall volume of such orders increased for the first time since September of 2006, although at an insignificant rate.
The main negative outcome of the January study was the latest decrease in manufacturing-sector employment, which was observed for a third month in a row. Moreover, the rate of job contraction changed little from the 40-month record level in December.
Inflationary pressure on Russian manufacturing sectors was still weak in January.
"At first glance, the results of the PMI survey are quite optimistic. Nevertheless, we are inclined to agree with producers and not reevaluate the positive January data. First, the January data are subject to a maximum seasonal correction from all months of the year, and the character of that seasonality could change with time. Second, in December 2012, with the aim of reducing stock, producers kept production activity at a low level. So, the increased dynamics of growth in January relative to the low basis of December says nothing definite about the stability of that growth. Nonetheless, we are probably seeing at least a stabilization of growth in the manufacturing sectors of Russia, and it is possible we will see somewhat of an improvement in the future. In the end, that would lead to a stabilization of the Russian economy as a whole," senior HSBC economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States countries Alexander Morozov said.
