Dollar continues to gain against ruble
MOSCOW. April 4 (Interfax) - The dollar continues to gain against the ruble in early trading on the Moscow Exchange Thursday as the external markets stay negative.
The dollar traded at 31.69 rubles/$1 after the first minute, 4 kopecks above yesterday's closing and 30 above the official rate. The dollar was up 11 kopecks to 31.76 rubles by 10.22 a.m.
The euro began the day at 40.7 rubles/EUR1, up 5 kopecks from yesterday's closing and 52 above the official rate. It was up 9 kopecks to 40.74 rubles by 10:22 a.m.
The bi-currency basket ($0.55 and EUR0.45) started the day at 35.745 rubles, up 5 kopecks from yesterday's closing value. The basket was up 10 kopecks to 35.8 by 10:22 a.m.
The basket has gone up 81 kopecks or 2.3% since the start of the month. The dollar has gained 70 kopecks and the euro 95 kopecks.
The dollar surged more than 30 kopecks in Wednesday's Unified Trading Session and the euro gained 50 kopecks. The dollar and the dual currency basket continue to hit their highest levels since the autumn of 2012.
The Interfax Center for Economic Analysis says the ruble is sliding in response to the Central Bank's monetary easing, following Tuesday's meeting of its board of directors, and due to the negative external environment. It is likely that the Central Bank is selling currency, so far in modest amounts, for the first time since the autumn.
The Central Bank does not intervene while the basket holds at the neutral sub-corridor of 34.65-35.65 rubles. The basket rose above that band in late trading on Wednesday for the first time this year. The regulator has not intervened to support the ruble since November 16, when it sold 1.21 billion rubles worth of currency, according to Central Bank statistics.
But market participants so far only think the Central Bank is intervening right now. The CBR will publish data on Friday to show whether this is actually the case.
Any interventions are not likely to be significant enough to influence the exchange rate with the currency basket at current levels. "The dual currency basket is approaching the upper limit of the neutral corridor, and we could perhaps expect the Bank of Russia to intervene, but interventions would be so small at current levels that they are unlikely to alter the alignment of forces in the market in a big way," Alexander Panasenko, head of conversion operations at Metalloinvestbank, told Interfax.
Most experts reckon the tide will soon turn anyway and the ruble will start to correct. "The ruble is likely to correct against the dollar today following its heavy losses. Some investors will want to take profit without waiting for any CB interventions that are looming on the horizon," said Nord Capital senior analyst Sergei Alin.
