CONSENSUS: Russian industrial output rose 2.4% in April; inflation at 0.4%
MOSCOW. May 6 (Interfax) - Russian industrial output may have grown 2.4% year-on-year in April, building on the increase in March that reversed declines in the preceding two months, analysts from investment companies, banks and think tanks said in their monthly consensus forecast for Interfax.
The Economic Development Ministry estimates GDP grew by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in March compared with February, following month-on-month declines of 0.3% each in January and February. March saw renewed growth in manufacturing, utilities, retail sales and construction, as well as a continuation of gains in the extractive industries and investment in fixed assets.
GDP was also higher in March on an annual basis: the Economic Development Ministry estimates Russian GDP rose 2.3% in March following a 0.4% decline in February.
Inflation could have been 0.4% in April, the analysts said.
The decline in industrial output seen in January slowed in February and turned to growth - a seasonally adjusted 1.3% - in March, including gains of 1.2% in manufacturing, 0.7% in the extractive industries, and 3.1% in utilities. On an annual basis, industrial output rose 2.6% in March following declines of 0.8% and 2.1% in January and February respectively.
At the time, economists welcomed the March data, but cautioned that a bounce had been expected and that there was no reason to expect the growth to accelerate.
The consensus forecast for growth in industrial output in 2013 has declined to 2.1% from 2.4% previously. Industrial output rose 2.6% in 2012. As expected, in April the Economic Development Ministry revised its official forecast for growth in industrial output in 2013 downward to 2.0% from 3.6%.
The growth of investment in fixed assets slowed to a crawl in March, to a seasonally adjusted 0.1% from 1.0% in February. Investment declined 0.8% in March on an annual basis, from growth of 0.3% in February.
In April the analysts expect investment in fixed assets to rise 2.6% on an annual basis. The consensus forecast for the full year is 4.3%, on a par with the ministry's revised forecast of 4.6%, down from the 6.5% previously.
The Economic Development Ministry estimates that retail trade turnover rose 0.7% after declining 0.6% in January and 0.1% in February. On an annual basis, retail trade rose 4.4% in March from revised estimates of 3.0% in February and 4.2% in January, indicating that it is premature for "last rites" on Russian consumer demand, although the market is saturated and is no longer capable of posting 5%-7% growth.
The economists forecast retail trade to grow at a 4.4% pace in April and 4.4% for the full year, about the same as the ministry's revised forecast of 4.3%, down from 5.4% previously.
Inflation in April will accelerate slightly to 0.4% in April, from 0.3% in March and 0.3% in April 2012. On an annual basis, inflation might increase to 7.1% in April from 7.0% in March, which will strengthen the Central Bank's argument for not cutting interest rates.
However, the consensus is for full-year inflation to slow in 2013 to 6.2%, compared with 6.6% in 2012. The official inflation forecast for the year is 5%-6%.
GDP growth will slow to 2.9% in 2013 from 3.4% in 2012, according to the consensus forecast. That is more optimistic than the Economic Development Ministry, which in April cut its GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 3.6% previously, and cautioned that growth might even slow to 1.7% if current trends hold.
The economists forecast the price of Urals crude to average $108 a barrel in 2013 and $107 in 2014. The Economic Development Ministry's forecast is more conservative at $105 a barrel in 2013 and $101 in 2014.
Analysts from ING, Alfa Bank, VTB Capital, the Economic Policy Institute, Otkritie, Raiffeisenbank, Uralsib and Sberbank's Macroeconomic Research Center took part in the survey.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for April, full-year 2013 and 2014:
| April 2013 | 2013 | 2014 | 2013 (official *) | 2014 (official*) | |
| GDP (real terms, as % of previous year) | 102.9 | 103.2 | 102.4 | 103.7 | |
| Industrial production (real terms, as % of previous year) | 102.4 | 102.1 | 102.6 | 102.0 | 103.4 |
| Urals crude. Average for year ($/barrel) | 108 | 107 | 105 | 101 | |
| Fixed capital investment (real terms, as % of previous year) | 102.6 | 104.3 | 105.6 | 104.6 | 106.6 |
| Retail turnover (real terms, as % of previous year) | 104.4 | 104.4 | 104.4 | 104.3 | 104.9 |
| Real incomes,% | 103.3 | 103.4 | 103.0 | 104.4 | |
| Unemployment, % as at end of period | 5.7 | 5.6 | |||
| Inflation, % for period | 0.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5-6 | 4-5 |
| Central Bank refinancing rate at end period, % | 7.75 | 7.5 | |||
| Producer prices, % for period | 0.0 | 7.6 | 7.7 | ||
| Ruble/euro rate, at end of period | - | 40.6 | 41.3 | ||
| Ruble/dollar rate, at end of period | - | 31.9 | 32.6 | 31.4 **) | 32.1 **) |
| Gold and forex reserves, at end of period, $ bln | - | 527 | 531 | ||
| Net private sector capital inflow/outflow, $ bln, for period | - | -43 | -20 | -30 | 0 |
| Export, $ bln | 44.7 | 516 | 535 | 506 | 503 |
| Import, $ bln | 29.3 | 348 | 370 | 355 | 372 |
*) Economic Development Ministry forecast, submitted to government in April
**) Average USD/ruble rate for year
