August capital outflow from Russia some $10 bln - econ ministry
MOSCOW. Oct 3 (Interfax) - Capital outflow from Russia amounted to some $10 billion in August, an Economic Development Ministry representative told the press.
According to Central Bank estimates, net capital outflow was $38.3 billion in the first half of this year. The ministry puts it at $6-$7 billion for July. The Bank is releasing its Q3 and Q1-Q3 outflow estimate this week.
At the beginning of this week, the Central Bank updated its forecast for private capital outflow in 2013, but its first deputy chief Ksenia Yudayeva has already said it was a technical update and that there would be another based on Q3 figures. In the new draft of the main aspects of monetary policy for the three-year period published on Monday, the estimate for this year is $62 billion versus $67 billion in the previous version. The Economic Development Ministry reckons capital outflow this year at $70 billion.
The Central Bank's forecast corridor was also changed to from $15 billion to $50 billion depending on the price of oil. Previously it was $25-$50 billion.
The forecast for 2015 contains a positive figure. If oil is $125 per barrel, the Central Bank anticipates inflow of $5 billion (the previous forecast was for $40 billion in outflow).
In the new monetary policy draft the corridor for 2016 ranges from outflow of $20 billion to inflow of $15 billion (previously, $20 billion to $5 billion).
Not long ago, the outflow forecast for 2014-2016 was improved by the Economic Development Ministry. In 2014, according to the base version, outflow is seen at $25 billion (earlier, $30 billion), in 2015 - zero outflow ($10 billion), in 2016 - inflow of $20 billion (zero inflow). These improvements were due, the ministry said, to a "subsequent improvement of the business climate" in Russia.
