Russian GDP to grow under 2% in 2013 - Raiffeisen
VIENNA. Oct 4 (Interfax) - Russian GDP will expand by under 2% in 2013 and 2% in 2014, Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) analysts predicted in a review.
The forecast for these years was lowered from the previous 3%.
RBI expects economic growth of 2.5% per year in 2015 and 2016.
A slowdown in industrial production is largely down to the completion of Olympics projects in Sochi, the review says. Consolidated spending on the projects to host the APEC Summit and the Olympic games has totaled 20 billion euros in the past few years, which supported economic growth, the analyst said.
The impact of these finishing projects could be compensated by government plans to spend around 10 billion rubles from the National Wealth Fund on infrastructure, including the express Moscow-Kazan highway, the Central Ring Road and Transsiberian Railway, as well as preparations for the World Cup in 2018, on which about 16 billion euros will be spent over five years.
Consumer demand remains one of the factors behind GDP growth, analysts say.
The Economic Development Ministry is keeping its GDP growth forecast for 2013 at 1.8%, anticipating a pick up at the end of the year, after 1.5% year-on-year economic growth in January-August.
RBI analysts expect the ruble to slide somewhat in the spring and summer of 2014 as the U.S. QE3 program is cut and the Central Bank of Russia moves to a floating exchange rate.
"Our forecast is that the ruble will climb to 37 rubles against the bi-currency basket in the first quarter and slide to 37.5 rubles in the spring," RBI analyst Andreas Schwabe said at the press conference.
RBI analysts forecast inflation of 6% in 2013, 5.6% in 2014 and 5.4% in 2015.
The Central Bank of Russia predicts inflation of 5%-6% in 2013, 5% in 2014 and 4.5% in 2015.
