Realistic to hold intl conference for Syria - expert
MOSCOW. Oct 30 (Interfax-AVN) - The situation unfolding in Syria is changing gradually, which provides the opportunity to convene the international peace conference for Syria (Geneva II), the Russian Academy of Sciences' Oriental Studies Institute Director Vitaly Naumkin told Interfax-AVN on Wednesday.
"I think it is realistic to hold Geneva II; the breakthrough made with the agreement between the administrations of the Russian Federation and the United States to scrap Syrian chemical weapons and the consent given by the Syrian authorities with regard to this plan, which was achieved largely through the mediation and efforts made by Russia, give one grounds for cautious optimism," the Russian expert said.
"The Syrian authorities feel more confident in this setting. That's for starters. Secondly, the West and even regional opponents of Syria are interested in cooperation with the regime. Although they claim that interaction with this regime is unacceptable who else but the Al-Assad government should be consulted with on the disposal of chemical weapons?" Naumkin wondered. "In fact, the government has actually been recognized as a partner," he said.
"The West also takes into account the battlefield situation, the new balance of forces between the army and police units loyal to the regime supported by Hezbollah units on one side and opposition groups on the other," Naumkin said.
"The split and separation processes continue inside the opposition. We hear about an increased number of internal clashes, for instance, between the Free Syrian Army and various kinds of militants affiliated with Al Qaeda," the scientist said.
"The opposition makes this conference conditional on the removal of the government from office and the establishment of a transitional authority. Meanwhile, the Syrian authorities rule out any preconditions. The convocation of this conference is linked to this dispute. One of the obstacles seems to have been removed, i.e., the U.S. objection to Iran as a [conference] participant," he said. "Now that the United States have started negotiations with Tehran, it is likely to drop those objections. This is an important change in the balance of forces around the Syrian conflict," he said.
"The question is whether the opposition can form a single delegation or there may be several delegations - I have never excluded this possibility, although I may be mistaken," Naumkin said.
"Anyway, if the conference takes place and its decisions are backed by even a part of the armed units or those who control them and regional actors, the Saudis, the Turks and the Qataris will be compelled not to support forces outside of the peace process. That would be an extremely significant result," Naumkin said.