Kazakhstan's GDP growth to reach 5.1% in 2013, 5.4% in 2014 - independent forecast
ALMATY. Nov 19 (Interfax) - Kazakhstan's economic growth will equal 5.1% in 2013 and accelerate to 5.4% in 2014, according to a survey of 12 independent economists by the Development Center of Russia's Higher School of Economics.
Their consensus forecast is for Kazakhstan's economy to grow 5.5% in 2015, 4.8% in 2016 and 4.7% in 2017.
Kazakhstan's Economy and Budget Planning Ministry forecasts higher GDP growth: 6% in 2013, 6% in 2014, 7.1% in 2015, 6.2% in 2016, and 6.5% in 2017.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast puts growth at 5% in 2013, 5.2% in 2014, 6.1% in 2015, 5.8% in 2016, and 5.4% in 2017.
"The fact that the official projections are slightly higher than independent experts' estimates, suggests that the government is more optimistic concerning interactions with the outside world (it is not possible to say from our survey what the exact cause is - whether expectations of higher oil exports, faster growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector, or something else)," according to the survey.
The consensus forecast for inflation is 5.6% in 2013, 5.8% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, 4.8% in 2016, 4.7% in 2017, which is below the government's target band of 6%-8% in 2013-2017.
The main risk for Kazakhstan's economy in 2013-2017 is a drop in oil prices, according to 55% of respondents. Fifteen percent of respondents said the risk of a global recession next year was the main risk and the same percentage said political instability inside Kazakhstan was the main risk. In other words, the economists did not think there were significant risks stemming from domestic economic factors, the survey said.