Internal split more dangerous for Kyrgyzstan than external enemies - expert
BISHKEK. Dec 10 (Interfax) - Kyrgyzstan should fear internal destabilization rather than a foreign invasion after the international coalition's departure from Afghanistan in 2014, policy expert Mars Sariev believes.
"Same as the other countries of former Soviet Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan has become a part of the Western project of Big Central Asia over the years of the operation in Afghanistan," the Kyrgyz expert told Interfax on Tuesday.
The new unifying project of the West involves both the former Soviet Central Asian republics and Afghanistan and Pakistan, he said.
"In fact, the West, mostly the United States, is shifting its focus on Central Asia after a series of failures in the Middle East," the expert said.
Sariev presumed that the project might be timed to coincide with the pullout of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) from Afghanistan in 2014.
He thinks that the Big Central Asia project may take advantage of internal disagreements, the existence of autonomous districts and political processes, including elections to be held in the countries of the region in 2014-2017.
"Kyrgyzstan traditionally fears an invasion after the forces leave Afghanistan, but the negative scenario will have a totally different character; the masterminds will deal with "breaking points" inside a country," he continued.
In this case the advantage may be taken of Kyrgyzstan's division into the north and the south, Sariev said.
Yet the expert does not think that the southern forces opposed to the north may join this project at this time.