Econ Ministry now forecasting 49 rubles/$1 in 2015
MOSCOW. Dec 2 (Interfax) - The Russian Economic Development Ministry has raised its 2015 exchange rate forecast from 37.7 rubles to 49 rubles/$1, Alexei Vedev, a deputy minister, told reporters.
The ruble's steep decline has promoted the ministry to revise the forecast just three months after this was last updated.
The ruble traded at all-time highs at one stage on December 1 before recovering slightly thanks to a correction in oil prices and possible Central Bank interventions, but the rate is still over 50 to the dollar. The Econ Ministry's latest 2015 oil price forecast is also more optimistic than the present level at $80 a barrel.
Vedev said experts, with whom he agreed, thought the exchange rate equilibrium would be 48-51 rubles/$1 next year if oil does trade at $80 and capital outflow is around $90 billion.
The ministry has revised this year's average exchange rate forecast from 35.7 rubles to 37.4 rubles/$1. It expects an average rate of 46.3 rubles/$1 for this month, compared with 45.9 rubles/$1 in November and 40.8 rubles/$1 in October.
The ruble could average at 47.1, 47.3, 47.8, 48.4, 49.1 and 49.5 rubles/$1 in the months between January and June next year inclusive and the average for the whole second half of 2015 is 49.7 rubles/$1.
The ministry expects the ruble's real effective exchange rate will fall 6.8% in 2014, compared with a previous forecast of 3.5%; and 13.5% in 2015, although it previously expected this to strengthen 0.4%.
