Russian GDP could shrink 3%-4% in 2015 - Klepach
MOSCOW. Dec 17 (Interfax) - Russian GDP could fall 3%-4% in 2015, Andrei Klepach, a Vnesheconombank (VEB) deputy CEO and former deputy economic development minister, said.
"I think the economy will shrink at least 1.2%-1.5% next year, but probably 3%-4%," Klepach told reporters on the sidelines of a conference on Russia in the WTO organized by the Vedomosti newspaper.
"The Central Bank's [stress] scenario, which is being worked out now, is fairly probable. Unfortunately, in view of what they've already done [the steep hike in the key rate] and are going to do, sequestering [budget spending], this scenario is fairly likely," Klepach said.
He said the price of oil, even if it bounces back to $80 by the end of next year, will average at $65-$70 a barrel in 2015. He said it might rise back to $90-$95 in 2016.
"Right now it'll simply take a year for [oil producers] to work things out among themselves, and the price will evidently climb in the second half of 2015," he said.
In any event, GDP decline in 2015 "looks like it is inevitable, and the task is to limit the extent of that slump and do all we can to ensure that we begin 2016 with growth, even it it's slight," he said.
