Eurasian project important for Belarus, Kazakhstan chiefly economically - analyst
MOSCOW. Dec 23 (Interfax) - Belarus and Kazakhstan, as Moscow's strongest partners in the nascent Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), have signaled that, unlike political integration, they are strategically interested in close economic partnership with Russia, says Alexei Makarkin, first vice president of the Center for Political Technologies.
"If you put aside the figures of [Kazakh President Nursultan] Nazarbayev and [Belarusian President Alexander] Lukashenko, this Eurasian project is significant and quite profitable economically for Belarus and Kazakhstan. These countries are very seriously interested in the EEU and in having their goods on the Russian market. And Nazarbayev's words that the EEU is ready to work even in critical conditions shows that they view an economic union as a significant and strategically important project. As for political integration, things are more complicated here," Makarkin said in an interview with Interfax on Tuesday.
As for Lukashenko and Nazarbayev, their personal positions are clearly in favor of the EEU, even though each member of the new alliance is pursuing their own ends and is determined to defend them, he said.
"What should be clearly understood is that everyone has their own interests here. Even in the Soviet time, the republics had their own interests, and they defended them before the central leadership more or less actively. Now it's understandable that these are independent states, and the problem of each union member's interests is even more significant," he said.
It is telling, in Makarkin's view, that Lukashenko called for making the EEU efficient. "Lukashenko's remark that the EEU should not be like the CIS is important. It is important that he doesn't hold the Russian president responsible for integration difficulties. It looks like the Belarusian leader has come to the conclusion that he has gone somewhat overboard with his harsh rhetoric. What is the CIS? Quite an amorphous organization. And by saying that the new alliance should not become a CIS clone, he probably means that the EEU should become an efficient organization," he said.
At the same time, Lukashenko will remain quite a difficult partner for Moscow in both bilateral relations and within the EEU framework, Makarkin said. "Is Lukashenko reliable for Moscow as an ally? If Moscow wants Lukashenko to follow Russian advice fully and completely, the Belarusian leader is unreliable in this sense and will keep maneuvering, just as he has done all the time. If the matter is about Lukashenko 'going West', he is quite a reliable figure for Moscow, because nobody in the West would welcome the Belarusian president anywhere," he said.
"The West might maneuver and talk with Lukashenko through clenched teeth, but he is an authoritarian leader for them, who is unwelcome in Europe. The Belarusian president actually has nowhere to go from Russia. In this sense, Lukashenko will continue interacting with Russia, playing and maneuvering, sometimes successfully and sometimes not very successfully," he said.
In defending his positions within the EEU, the Belarusian leader might criticize Moscow from time to time, making it clear, however, that his harsh criticism doesn't extend to the Russian leadership as a whole, he said.
"Lukashenko is showing that he has a grudge against Russian officials; anyway, he has always had a grudge against them. He has often slammed them, but now he is in fact slamming the Russian leadership. Perhaps Moscow didn't like it, and quite seriously, and Lukashenko immediately maneuvered, saying that he didn't mean the Russian leadership in general but only certain officials in his criticism," he said.
"The Belarusian president apparently wants Russia to discuss all issues related to serious economic decisions with him, such as, for example, retaliatory measures to sanctions, so that more attention should be paid to him. Lukashenko believes Russia sometimes acts unilaterally. On the other hand, Moscow doesn't really trust the Belarusian leader, either, believing that Minsk disregards Russian interests and that transit supplies from Belarus to Kazakhstan are in fact hidden supplies of banned goods to Russia," he said.
