Russian Resources Min lowers growth forecasts for annual oil reserves by 30%, 43% for gas until 2020
MOSCOW. Jan 26 (Interfax) - The Russian Natural Resources and Environment Ministry has drastically lowered its growth forecast to 2020 for annual oil and gas reserves in Russia, according to a draft of the updated program for reproducing and using of natural resources published online.
The forecast for C1 oil reserves has been lowered to 28% growth per year, while gas reserves can expect 43% growth.
According to the program approved by the government in April of last year, the increase in C1 oil reserves was expected to be at 750 million tonnes in 2015, 755 million tonnes in 2016, 755 million in 2017, 765 million tonnes in 2018, 758 million tonnes in 2019 and 757 million tonnes in 2020. In an updated production draft, the annual increase in C1 oil and condensate reserves is expected at 550 million tonnes in 2015-2020.
Increased C1 gas reserves in the approved version of the program were estimated at 1.46 trillion cubic meters in 2015, 1.58 trillion cubic meters in 2016, 1.59 trillion in 2017, 1.79 trillion in 2018, 1.815 trillion in 2019 and 1.83 trillion in 2020. According to the updated program, annual growth in gas reserves will total 715 billion cubic meters between 2015 and 2019. In 2020, this increase might grow to 780 billion cubic meters.
The revision in the forecast reserves increase concerns mostly onshore projects. Forecasts for the increase in shelf gas and oil reserves were not adjusted significantly. The increase in C1 oil reserves on the shelf was raised slightly to 52 million tonnes in 2020 from 44 million in 2015. In the updated version, the increase in oil reserves on the shelf has been raised to 50 million tonnes in 2020 from 42 million tonnes in 2015. The increase in gas reserves has remained unchanged and is at 350 billion cubic meters in 2015 to 370-380 billion cubic meters in 2020.
The press service of the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry told Interfax that the state reserves balance as of January 1, 2014, included A, B and C1 reserves of 18.2 billion tonnes of oil and 49.5 trillion cubic meters of gas. With annual oil production of 498 million tonnes and gas at 650 billion cubic meters, these oil reserves will last for 36 years, while gas reserve will last for 75.
Because of a forecast fall in the amount of funds from subsoil users on geological exploration, the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry and the Russian Federal Subsurface Resources Agency (Rosnedra) assume that the annual increase in reserves might be comparable to production, a ministry representative said.