Gref: oil might stay in $50-$55 range for 10 yrs
MOSCOW. Sept 24 (Interfax) - The price of oil may stay at the $50-$55 per barrel level for 10 years, Sberbank of Russia chief German Gref said.
"What if the price holds over the course of 10 years at 40-50 [dollars per barrel]? I don't believe it will be 40, but 50-55 is entirely realistic. This scenario could happen. We are saying it might be 80, but there is after all a big difference between 80 and 50. If it is above 50 - great, all the profit is ours. The government won't take it. But if it's 50 or lower, what will we do?" Gref said at a meeting of the Energy's Ministry's community board on Thursday.
Gref called on the Energy Ministry to take into account less optimistic forecasts for oil in setting strategic targets for the industry.
"Today we, at a price of 47 [dollars per barrel], are saying that it will be 70-80 - this is a problem. What if we did a more realistic scenario? This is very optimistic. I am not a pessimist in that the price will be very low. But it seems to me that assuming the price will bounce back quickly is also wrong," he said.
Aluminum makers have been waiting for prices to bounce back for eight years now. But aluminum prices are dropping, even though consumption is rising 6%-8% a year.
"Unfortunately, it may be a similar story for oil. We will hope that is doesn't happen, but unfortunately the probability it does is quite high," Gref said.