ISIL stands to gain from conflict between Saudi Arabia, Iran - Russian political scientists
MOSCOW. Jan 7 (Interfax) - Russian political scientists believe that the severance of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran does not change anything in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, but seriously complicates he fight against ISIL (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), which stands to gain from a conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
"It doesn't change anything in the geopolitical situation in the region, it only exacerbates the differences between the Sunni and Shiite communities. Clearly, it is connected to the protests in Iran against the execution in Saudi Arabia of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr," Alexei Makarkin, vice-president of the foundation Center for Political Technologies, told Interfax on Monday.
"In Syria, Riyadh and Tehran support conflicting forces. The Syrian war is widely known, but the war going on in Yemen, where Saudis and Iranians support the conflicting sides, is less known. If you look at Iraq, the situation there is not so clear as in Syria and Yemen. In Iraq, Shiite units are fighting against ISIL, which have now liberated Ramadi with support from the Western countries. Many Sunnis in Iraq support ISIL to some degree, or are at least neutral about it," the expert said.
The expert said an open military conflict should not be expected, despite the aggravation of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. "The situation will aggravate. I don't think it will come to a global war, but it will become even more difficult to reach agreements in Syria and in Yemen than it was before. And ISIL stands to gain from such a situation," Makarkin said.
As to the fight against ISIL, the frictions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are hindering this process, but are not reducing it to nothing, the expert said.
"The Saudis do not want Sunni radicals to become too active because they threaten the Sunni Saudi royal house, which they do not like. And Shiites, ISIL is a horrible option. For this reason, the severance of diplomatic relations undoubtedly complicates the fight against terrorism, but it not fatal," Makarkin said.
Apparently, the offensive on ISIL on all fronts will only increase this year, but suicide bombers, whom the terrorist organization normally leaves after surrendering cities, will be a serious problem, the expert said.
"I believe they will continue pressuring ISIL this year. And the main objects of the offensive against ISIL will be Mosul in Iraq and al-Raqqah in Syria. However, it is unlikely that the problem will be fully resolved because ISIL organizes explosions, using suicide bombers, even if they have to leave cities," he said.
Makarkin said he believes that the tough position of official Tehran is largely politically motivated in connection with the parliamentary elections scheduled for February.
He said parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Iran this year and the competition between reformers and conservatives will be very serious. "Clearly, the current reformist administration of Iran cannot show weakness. The only achievement of the reformers is the lifting of sanctions, and that's about it. The conservatives will actively use their conflict with Sunnis in the campaign. For this reason, the Iranian government has no special freedom for maneuver here,' the expert said.
Yevgeny Satanovsky, president of the Institute for the Middle Eastern Studies, for his part, believes that the severance of diplomatic relations confirms that Iran and Saudi Arabia have been at war with each other for a long time.
"The war between Saudi Arabia and Iran has de facto been going on for a long time. The severance of diplomatic relations just stated this fact. For this reason, nothing changes," Satanovsky told Interfax on Monday.
He said the special thing about this conflict is that Saudi Arabia and Iran are involved in it indirectly.
"The Iranians are fighting the terrorists that Saudi Arabia is setting against Tehran and Shiites in general with support from Qatar and Turkey. Iran, for its part, has its own structures reporting to it, which work not only with radical Sunnis, but also with Israel. The fight here has absolutely no compromises on a religious and political basis," he said.