Low likelihood of stress scenario with $25 oil playing out - Nabiullina
MOSCOW. March 18 (Interfax) - The likelihood of the macroeconomic forecast's stress scenario, where oil trades at $25 a barrel, playing out is low, Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina told a press conference.
According to this scenario, oil prices will fall and "consolidate at $25 a barrel for a three-year period," she said.
"In this case, we assume a GDP drop of 2-3% in 2016. Inflation will be more elevated than under the baseline scenario, exceeding 7% by the end of 2016. Currently, we assess the probability of this scenario as low," she said.
The new baseline scenario assumes that oil prices will gradually rise from $30 per barrel in 2016 to $40 in 2018.
"This scenario is close to the risk one released in December. However, in view of current more positive economy and inflation dynamics, the forecast for economic fundamentals is somewhat more promising in the baseline scenario. We expect a GDP drop of 1.3-1.5% in 2016 and close-to-zero growth rates in 2017. GDP growth rate will become positive in 2018. The advancing processes of import substitution and non-energy export expansion will help a gradual economic activity recovery," he said.
Speaking of the balance of payments, Nabiullina said: "We do not perceive any significant risks related to the current balance of payments. Our estimates show that under all scenarios external debt payments will be processed smoothly."
The capital outflow will not exceed $40 billion in 2016 under the baseline scenario.
"All our scenarios suggest that over three-year horizon the GDP growth will become positive and inflation will reach the 4% target," she added.
