EBRD: Russian economic growth after 2017 won't top 2% a year without significant reforms
MOSCOW. May 11 (Interfax) - Russian GDP growth is unlikely to rise higher than 2% a year after 2017 without significant reforms, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said.
"In 2017 growth is expected to pick-up to 1 per cent supported by recovering oil prices, private consumption and investment, while long-term growth, without significant reforms, may stay at around 1 to 2 per cent annually," the EBRD said in an analytical report.
The EBRD forecasts that the Russian economy will contract 1.2% in 2016, the same forecast it made in November 2015, "as oil prices remain subdued, sanctions may not be removed soon and structural reforms are progressing slowly."
"In addition, limited short-term effects of supportive fiscal and monetary policies could be offset by supply-side constraints due to low investment and outdated production capacities," the EBRD said.
Russian GDP shrank 3.7% in 2015 as household consumption contracted 9% and investment activity remained weak. "A sharp drop in imports, on the other hand, was a supportive factor," the bank said.
